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10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 99¢ · $133 held · ends Nov 16

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 83%

Total Value

$133.03

Combined PnL

-$12.96

Smart Money Entry

99.4¢ → 98.7¢

-1% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$125.72

Total Shares128

Combined PnL-$1.61

Yes2 traders

Total Value$7.32

Total Shares149

Combined PnL-$11.35

No — 83%Yes — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$39.76	$39.1	-$0.66	53% 7192-6289 (13481)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$19.88	$19.55	-$0.33	43% 5129-6814 (11943)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$14.98	$14.9	-$0.09	28% 1054-2759 (3813)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$10.11	$9.94	-$0.17	49% 845-866 (1711)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$9.93	$9.93	-$0	36% 309-548 (857)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$9.93	$9.82	-$0.11	32% 281-585 (866)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$9.94	$9.78	-$0.16	31% 1081-2425 (3506)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$5.1	$5.1	+$0	50% 780-769 (1549)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.5¢	$12.15	$4.76	-$7.39	32% 224-485 (709)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$4.61	$4.56	-$0.05	61% 790-508 (1298)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$3.08	$3.04	-$0.03	52% 830-759 (1589)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.5¢	$6.52	$2.56	-$3.96	39% 3701-5905 (9606)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$39.76

Value

$39.1

PnL

-$0.66

Record

53%

7192-6289 (13481)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$19.88

Value

$19.55

PnL

-$0.33

Record

43%

5129-6814 (11943)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$14.98

Value

$14.9

PnL

-$0.09

Record

28%

1054-2759 (3813)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$10.11

Value

$9.94

PnL

-$0.17

Record

49%

845-866 (1711)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$9.93

Value

$9.93

PnL

-$0

Record

36%

309-548 (857)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$9.93

Value

$9.82

PnL

-$0.11

Record

32%

281-585 (866)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$9.94

Value

$9.78

PnL

-$0.16

Record

31%

1081-2425 (3506)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$5.1

Value

$5.1

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

780-769 (1549)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.15

Value

$4.76

PnL

-$7.39

Record

32%

224-485 (709)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$4.61

Value

$4.56

PnL

-$0.05

Record

61%

790-508 (1298)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$3.08

Value

$3.04

PnL

-$0.03

Record

52%

830-759 (1589)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.52

Value

$2.56

PnL

-$3.96

Record

39%

3701-5905 (9606)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.7%

98.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.