Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1?

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 98¢ · $120 held · ends Nov 16

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$119.77

Combined PnL

-$17.88

Smart Money Entry

98.9¢ → 97.5¢

-1% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 98%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$112.23

Total Shares115

Combined PnL-$1.38

Yes3 traders

Total Value$7.54

Total Shares264

Combined PnL-$16.5

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$39.52	$39	-$0.52	53% 7192-6289 (13481)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$19.75	$19.49	-$0.26	43% 5129-6814 (11943)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$10.05	$9.92	-$0.13	58% 787-561 (1348)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$9.92	$9.88	-$0.04	32% 281-585 (866)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$9.88	$9.75	-$0.13	36% 309-548 (857)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 98.7¢	$9.87	$9.74	-$0.13	31% 1081-2425 (3506)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 98.7¢	$5.07	$5	-$0.07	46% 1157-1347 (2504)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$4.97	$4.94	-$0.03	38% 286-470 (756)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$4.58	$4.52	-$0.07	49% 816-837 (1653)
AL AlanCurtisCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.9¢	$6.15	$3.32	-$2.84	1% 1-116 (117)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.5¢	$12.15	$2.39	-$8.84	32% 224-485 (709)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 10.7¢	$6.66	$1.83	-$4.82	39% 3701-5905 (9606)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$39.52

Value

$39

PnL

-$0.52

Record

53%

7192-6289 (13481)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$19.75

Value

$19.49

PnL

-$0.26

Record

43%

5129-6814 (11943)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$10.05

Value

$9.92

PnL

-$0.13

Record

58%

787-561 (1348)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$9.92

Value

$9.88

PnL

-$0.04

Record

32%

281-585 (866)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$9.88

Value

$9.75

PnL

-$0.13

Record

36%

309-548 (857)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$9.87

Value

$9.74

PnL

-$0.13

Record

31%

1081-2425 (3506)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$5.07

Value

PnL

-$0.07

Record

46%

1157-1347 (2504)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$4.97

Value

$4.94

PnL

-$0.03

Record

38%

286-470 (756)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$4.58

Value

$4.52

PnL

-$0.07

Record

49%

816-837 (1653)

AlanCurtisCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.15

Value

$3.32

PnL

-$2.84

Record

1-116 (117)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.15

Value

$2.39

PnL

-$8.84

Record

32%

224-485 (709)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.66

Value

$1.83

PnL

-$4.82

Record

39%

3701-5905 (9606)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 98%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.6%

97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.