Will MrBeast's next video get at least 110 million views on week 1?

1 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (11%) · Yes at 64¢ · $352 held · ends Nov 22

Yes64¢No36¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 11%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$351.51

Combined PnL

$149.84

Research grade

AvoidYes at 64%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 9 top traders (11%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes64%

No37%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$205.7

Total Shares300

Combined PnL+$76.7

No8 traders

Total Value$29.39

Total Shares153

Combined PnL+$73.14

Yes — 11%No — 89%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (4 on No) disagree here.

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 4

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Nostdam	Yesavg 43¢	$129	$205.7	+$76.7	11% 15-117 (132)
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Noavg 49.3¢	$165.75	$116.42	+$28.54	39% 3649-5778 (9427)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 19.9¢	$25.81	$89.15	+$80.75
└ No leg	Noavg 49.3¢	$83.99	$27.27	-$52.21
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 32.5¢	$32.5	$11.21	+$2.07	43% 5075-6628 (11703)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Noavg 20.6¢	$9.04	$8.56	-$0.48	65% 4317-2331 (6648)
NO northdrawerCTR<$100	Noavg 24¢	$35.13	$3.94	+$74.27	29% 1104-2668 (3772)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 20¢	$2.01	$1.96	-$0.05	51% 809-769 (1578)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 24¢	$1.93	$1.93	+$0	49% 758-801 (1559)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 38¢	$1.96	$0.82	-$1.13	46% 1101-1303 (2404)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 38¢	$1.91	$0.8	-$1.1	50% 723-711 (1434)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Noavg 59¢	$0.59	$0.16	-$0.43	51% 773-729 (1502)

Nostdam

Yes

Invested

$129

Value

$205.7

PnL

+$76.7

Record

11%

15-117 (132)

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Invested

$165.75

Value

$116.42

PnL

+$28.54

Record

39%

3649-5778 (9427)

Both legs:

Yes$25.8119.9¢+$80.75

No$83.9949.3¢-$52.21

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$32.5

Value

$11.21

PnL

+$2.07

Record

43%

5075-6628 (11703)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Invested

$9.04

Value

$8.56

PnL

-$0.48

Record

65%

4317-2331 (6648)

northdrawerCTR<$100

Invested

$35.13

Value

$3.94

PnL

+$74.27

Record

29%

1104-2668 (3772)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$2.01

Value

$1.96

PnL

-$0.05

Record

51%

809-769 (1578)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$1.93

Value

$1.93

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

758-801 (1559)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$1.96

Value

$0.82

PnL

-$1.13

Record

46%

1101-1303 (2404)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$1.91

Value

$0.8

PnL

-$1.1

Record

50%

723-711 (1434)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

$0.59

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$0.43

Record

51%

773-729 (1502)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 64%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 9 top traders (11%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (4 on No) disagree here.

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 4

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.6%

63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$52.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

152.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.