Will MrBeast's next video get between 100 and 110 million views on week 1?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 89¢ · $328 held · ends Nov 22

Yes11¢No89¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$328.16

Combined PnL

-$10.32

Smart Money Entry

90.2¢ → 88.5¢

-2% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 89%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes11%

No89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$278.41

Total Shares310

Combined PnL-$0.74

Yes4 traders

Total Value$49.75

Total Shares422

Combined PnL-$9.58

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Late

64h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MI mildwindow27	Noavg 88.4¢	$119.29	$123.84	+$4.56	31% 1057-2405 (3462)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 95.1¢	$76.09	$70.84	-$5.25	27% 1031-2734 (3765)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 85.9¢	$46.79	$48.26	+$1.47	61% 773-494 (1267)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$64	$42.15	-$7.55	39% 3661-5820 (9481)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 88.2¢	$17.64	$17.71	+$0.07	58% 767-547 (1314)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 98¢	$9.85	$8.9	-$0.95	52% 810-753 (1563)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 94.9¢	$9.49	$8.86	-$0.63	30% 253-582 (835)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Yesavg 14.3¢	$6	$5.88	-$0.12	49% 828-860 (1688)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 14.3¢	$10.28	$1.41	-$0.36	43% 5103-6732 (11835)
NO northdrawerCTR<$100	Yesavg 14.3¢	$12.67	$0.31	-$1.56	29% 1113-2674 (3787)

mildwindow27

Invested

$119.29

Value

$123.84

PnL

+$4.56

Record

31%

1057-2405 (3462)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$76.09

Value

$70.84

PnL

-$5.25

Record

27%

1031-2734 (3765)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$46.79

Value

$48.26

PnL

+$1.47

Record

61%

773-494 (1267)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$64

Value

$42.15

PnL

-$7.55

Record

39%

3661-5820 (9481)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$17.64

Value

$17.71

PnL

+$0.07

Record

58%

767-547 (1314)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$9.85

Value

$8.9

PnL

-$0.95

Record

52%

810-753 (1563)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$9.49

Value

$8.86

PnL

-$0.63

Record

30%

253-582 (835)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$5.88

PnL

-$0.12

Record

49%

828-860 (1688)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.28

Value

$1.41

PnL

-$0.36

Record

43%

5103-6732 (11835)

northdrawerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.67

Value

$0.31

PnL

-$1.56

Record

29%

1113-2674 (3787)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 89%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Late

64h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.0%

88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.