Will MOUZ Win the PGL Major Singapore 2026?

15 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 81¢ · $1K held · ends Dec 15

Yes19¢No81¢Ends Tue, Dec 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$36.58

Smart Money Entry

83.3¢ → 81¢

-3% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

15 of 15 top traders (100%)10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes19%

No81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No15 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,387

Combined PnL-$36.58

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 32%

Freshness

Late

75h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 32% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes	Noavg 82¢	$219.96	$215.9	-$4.06	52% 5277-4791 (10068)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 83.6¢	$145.35	$143.15	-$2.2	40% 2998-4409 (7407)
LI Likaseent	Noavg 84¢	$124.21	$119.04	-$5.18	26% 360-1007 (1367)
KA kaxel78	Noavg 84¢	$124.21	$119.04	-$5.18	28% 522-1370 (1892)
ZE zerone777	Noavg 84¢	$124.21	$119.04	-$5.18	30% 511-1182 (1693)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 83¢	$99.6	$96.6	-$3	25% 806-2476 (3282)
VA Vale54holi<$100	Noavg 84¢	$83.49	$80.01	-$3.48	28% 367-935 (1302)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 83¢	$49.8	$48.3	-$1.5	4% 15-322 (337)
Haradwaith<$100	Noavg 83¢	$41.58	$40.33	-$1.25	— 6-8 (14)
AL alex20011<$100	Noavg 83¢	$41.5	$40.25	-$1.25	44% 1068-1376 (2444)
PO pollo07<$100	Noavg 84¢	$42	$40.25	-$1.75	27% 499-1317 (1816)
VI VictorLudorum<$100	Noavg 83.4¢	$25.01	$24.15	-$0.86	— 0-13 (13)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 83¢	$24.9	$24.15	-$0.75	11% 35-270 (305)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 83¢	$24.9	$24.15	-$0.75	28% 825-2133 (2958)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 84¢	$4.87	$4.67	-$0.2	35% 2852-5315 (8167)

cigarettes

Invested

$219.96

Value

$215.9

PnL

-$4.06

Record

52%

5277-4791 (10068)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$145.35

Value

$143.15

PnL

-$2.2

Record

40%

2998-4409 (7407)

Likaseent

Invested

$124.21

Value

$119.04

PnL

-$5.18

Record

26%

360-1007 (1367)

kaxel78

Invested

$124.21

Value

$119.04

PnL

-$5.18

Record

28%

522-1370 (1892)

zerone777

Invested

$124.21

Value

$119.04

PnL

-$5.18

Record

30%

511-1182 (1693)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$99.6

Value

$96.6

PnL

-$3

Record

25%

806-2476 (3282)

Vale54holi<$100

Invested

$83.49

Value

$80.01

PnL

-$3.48

Record

28%

367-935 (1302)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$49.8

Value

$48.3

PnL

-$1.5

Record

15-322 (337)

Haradwaith<$100

Invested

$41.58

Value

$40.33

PnL

-$1.25

Record

—

6-8 (14)

alex20011<$100

Invested

$41.5

Value

$40.25

PnL

-$1.25

Record

44%

1068-1376 (2444)

pollo07<$100

Invested

$42

Value

$40.25

PnL

-$1.75

Record

27%

499-1317 (1816)

VictorLudorum<$100

Invested

$25.01

Value

$24.15

PnL

-$0.86

Record

—

0-13 (13)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$24.9

Value

$24.15

PnL

-$0.75

Record

11%

35-270 (305)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$24.9

Value

$24.15

PnL

-$0.75

Record

28%

825-2133 (2958)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$4.87

Value

$4.67

PnL

-$0.2

Record

35%

2852-5315 (8167)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 81%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

15 of 15 top traders (100%)10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 32%

Freshness

Late

75h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 32% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.7%

81.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.