Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (79%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will MOUZ Win the IEM Beijing 2026?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 21¢ · $326 held · ends Nov 10
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 40%
1 arb excluded
$325.86
-$36.69
61.6¢ → 21¢
-66% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 21%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 79%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-17 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
29h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
3 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100 | Noavg 40.6¢ | $284.42 | $186.23 | +$4.25 | 35% 19622-37185 (56807) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 40.6¢ | $138.12 | $112.3 | -$13.33 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 50.7¢ | $55.98 | $73.93 | +$17.57 | |
CI cigarettesCTR | Noavg 62.1¢ | $111.75 | $59.4 | -$52.35 | 53% 24342-21404 (45746) |
 ocr7<$100 | Yesavg 44¢ | $22.01 | $33.5 | +$4.75 | 55% 1405-1154 (2559) |
SP SPLPB<$100 | Yesavg 80¢ | $49.36 | $21.72 | -$0.14 | 24% 806-2607 (3413) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Yesavg 4.5¢ | $2.62 | $13.84 | +$11.22 | 28% 3038-7860 (10898) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 59¢ | $11.23 | $11.05 | -$0.18 | 58% 21689-15792 (37481) |
Invested
$284.42
Value
$186.23
PnL
+$4.25
Record
35%
19622-37185 (56807)
Both legs:
Invested
$111.75
Value
$59.4
PnL
-$52.35
Record
53%
24342-21404 (45746)
ocr7<$100Invested
$22.01
Value
$33.5
PnL
+$4.75
Record
55%
1405-1154 (2559)
Invested
$49.36
Value
$21.72
PnL
-$0.14
Record
24%
806-2607 (3413)
Invested
$2.62
Value
$13.84
PnL
+$11.22
Record
28%
3038-7860 (10898)
Invested
$11.23
Value
$11.05
PnL
-$0.18
Record
58%
21689-15792 (37481)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
21.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.