Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (77%). 2 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will MOUZ Win the BLAST Rivals Hong Kong 2026?
2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 23¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 17
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
8
Yes 25%
$1.1K
$20.69
21¢ → 23¢
+10% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 23%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 8 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors No 77%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
25% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Parz1vaICTR | Yesavg 21¢ | $634.85 | $665.08 | +$30.23 | 72% 1107-420 (1527) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 79.1¢ | $149.86 | $149.21 | -$0.65 | 41% 3090-4455 (7545) |
 Haradwaith | Noavg 79.5¢ | $110.41 | $105.55 | -$4.86 | 50% 23-23 (46) |
SU SulkingCrypto<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $76.76 | $74.48 | -$2.28 | 15% 3-17 (20) |
WA WarriorH<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $69.69 | $67.62 | -$2.07 | 4% 1-24 (25) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $22.5 | $22.8 | +$0.3 | 25% 842-2482 (3324) |
BI Bigggggggg<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $1.82 | $1.84 | +$0.02 | 53% 1602-1414 (3016) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 22¢ | $1.53 | $1.53 | +$0 | 55% 399-332 (731) |
Parz1vaICTRInvested
$634.85
Value
$665.08
PnL
+$30.23
Record
72%
1107-420 (1527)
Invested
$149.86
Value
$149.21
PnL
-$0.65
Record
41%
3090-4455 (7545)
HaradwaithInvested
$110.41
Value
$105.55
PnL
-$4.86
Record
50%
23-23 (46)
Invested
$76.76
Value
$74.48
PnL
-$2.28
Record
15%
3-17 (20)
Invested
$69.69
Value
$67.62
PnL
-$2.07
Record
4%
1-24 (25)
Invested
$22.5
Value
$22.8
PnL
+$0.3
Record
25%
842-2482 (3324)
Invested
$1.82
Value
$1.84
PnL
+$0.02
Record
53%
1602-1414 (3016)
Invested
$1.53
Value
$1.53
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
399-332 (731)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
23.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.