Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (73%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Veracruz Congress election?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 27¢ · $1K held · ends Jun 7, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 60%
$1.2K
-$316.22
31.4¢ → 27¢
-14% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 27%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+40 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 85%
Freshness
Late
482h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Noavg 29.7¢ | $622.6 | $453.51 | -$224.88 | 36% 15698-27712 (43410) |
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754 | Yesavg 67.3¢ | $440.11 | $444.35 | +$4.24 | — 7-2 (9) |
 GohstCTR | Noavg 40¢ | $198.23 | $163.54 | -$118.94 | 49% 736-767 (1503) |
 IstarothCTR<$100 | Noavg 25.1¢ | $97.82 | $96.8 | +$13.5 | 19% 335-1419 (1754) |
 archaic<$100 | Yesavg 68¢ | $68.03 | $77.88 | +$9.85 | 85% 1885-339 (2224) |
Invested
$622.6
Value
$453.51
PnL
-$224.88
Record
36%
15698-27712 (43410)
Invested
$440.11
Value
$444.35
PnL
+$4.24
Record
—
7-2 (9)
GohstCTRInvested
$198.23
Value
$163.54
PnL
-$118.94
Record
49%
736-767 (1503)
IstarothCTR<$100Invested
$97.82
Value
$96.8
PnL
+$13.5
Record
19%
335-1419 (1754)
archaic<$100Invested
$68.03
Value
$77.88
PnL
+$9.85
Record
85%
1885-339 (2224)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
27.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.