Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Chihuahua Congress election?
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 62¢ · $461 held · ends Jun 7, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 25%
1 arb excluded
$461.45
$11.01
Research grade
NeutralYes at 62%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754 | Yesavg 40.1¢ | $286.43 | $296.7 | +$10.27 | — 4-15 (19) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100 | Noavg 49.7¢ | $115.65 | $103.54 | -$12.11 | 41% 3116-4481 (7597) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 49.7¢ | $101.85 | $80.98 | -$20.87 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 37¢ | $13.8 | $22.57 | +$8.77 | |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100 | Noavg 60¢ | $27.6 | $26.91 | -$0.69 | 4% 1-27 (28) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Noavg 60¢ | $19.8 | $19.31 | -$0.5 | 10% 3-26 (29) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Noavg 51¢ | $13.07 | $14.99 | +$1.92 | 53% 5657-5082 (10739) |
Invested
$286.43
Value
$296.7
PnL
+$10.27
Record
—
4-15 (19)
Invested
$115.65
Value
$103.54
PnL
-$12.11
Record
41%
3116-4481 (7597)
Both legs:
Invested
$27.6
Value
$26.91
PnL
-$0.69
Record
4%
1-27 (28)
Invested
$19.8
Value
$19.31
PnL
-$0.5
Record
10%
3-26 (29)
Invested
$13.07
Value
$14.99
PnL
+$1.92
Record
53%
5657-5082 (10739)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
62.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.