Will more than 8 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026?

16 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold No (84%) · No at 83¢ · $5K held · ends Jul 1, 2027

Yes18¢No82¢Ends Thu, Jul 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 84%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.8K

Combined PnL

$954.4

Smart Money Entry

54.3¢ → 82.5¢

+52% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 83%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

16 of 19 top traders (84%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes18%

No83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No16 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares4,019

Combined PnL+$962.13

Yes3 traders

Total Value$18.58

Total Shares63

Combined PnL-$7.72

No — 84%Yes — 16%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

16 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Late

295h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

84% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 18

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Noavg 53.3¢	$2.0K	$1.6K	+$144.16	35% 18146-33983 (52129)
└ No leg	Noavg 53.3¢	$928.61	$1.2K	+$288.02
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 41.9¢	$576.07	$405.4	-$143.86
10 101456	Noavg 50¢	$617.7	$1.0K	+$407.68	52% 149-135 (284)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758	No	$777.79	$777.79	+$258.21	50% 135-137 (272)
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754	Noavg 56.5¢	$318.73	$397.46	+$78.72	59% 13-9 (22)
SM smallreceipt	Noavg 68.5¢	$178.1	$183.3	+$5.2	49% 8836-9340 (18176)
IstarothARB<$100	Yesavg 58.9¢	$184.23	$150.24	-$7.22	14% 461-2750 (3211)
└ No leg	Noavg 43.6¢	$65.49	$105.92	+$37.63
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 58.9¢	$88.53	$44.32	-$44.84
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 63.4¢	$90.12	$87.88	+$6.52	58% 19455-14308 (33763)
ME merod<$100	Noavg 71¢	$84.52	$83.92	-$0.6	43% 3128-4187 (7315)
DO donthackme<$100	Noavg 38.9¢	$71.21	$81.2	+$89.38	73% 12861-4791 (17652)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100	Noavg 46.2¢	$51.22	$78.24	+$27.02	40% 283-428 (711)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 56.6¢	$50.9	$63.45	+$12.55	59% 11831-8157 (19988)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 76¢	$30.4	$53.07	+$4.34	53% 22623-19873 (42496)
AK akroll<$100	Noavg 60¢	$45.05	$52.93	+$7.88	33% 454-938 (1392)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 28¢	$27.77	$40.89	+$42.12	27% 6838-18773 (25611)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 19¢	$7.6	$28.2	+$20.6	42% 7010-9803 (16813)
SN SnapElectionAvoider<$100	Noavg 78¢	$21.26	$19.22	-$2.04	50% 1278-1291 (2569)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 46¢	$23	$14.75	-$8.25	20% 2587-10256 (12843)
KO korda77<$100	Noavg 67¢	$9.55	$10.05	+$0.5	44% 6474-8170 (14644)
VI VictorLudorum<$100	Noavg 30¢	$3	$7.05	+$4.05	52% 6272-5822 (12094)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 25.5¢	$2.55	$2.95	+$0.4	77% 12289-3775 (16064)
GO god83743894CTR<$100	Yes	$0.88	$0.88	+$0.13	46% 10307-11997 (22304)

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Invested

$1,952.86

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$144.16

Record

35%

18146-33983 (52129)

Both legs:

No$928.6153.3¢+$288.02

Yes$576.0741.9¢-$143.86

101456

Invested

$617.7

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$407.68

Record

52%

149-135 (284)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758

Invested

$777.79

Value

$777.79

PnL

+$258.21

Record

50%

135-137 (272)

0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754

Invested

$318.73

Value

$397.46

PnL

+$78.72

Record

59%

13-9 (22)

smallreceipt

Invested

$178.1

Value

$183.3

PnL

+$5.2

Record

49%

8836-9340 (18176)

IstarothARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$184.23

Value

$150.24

PnL

-$7.22

Record

14%

461-2750 (3211)

Both legs:

No$65.4943.6¢+$37.63

Yes$88.5358.9¢-$44.84

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$90.12

Value

$87.88

PnL

+$6.52

Record

58%

19455-14308 (33763)

merod<$100

Invested

$84.52

Value

$83.92

PnL

-$0.6

Record

43%

3128-4187 (7315)

donthackme<$100

Invested

$71.21

Value

$81.2

PnL

+$89.38

Record

73%

12861-4791 (17652)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100

Invested

$51.22

Value

$78.24

PnL

+$27.02

Record

40%

283-428 (711)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$50.9

Value

$63.45

PnL

+$12.55

Record

59%

11831-8157 (19988)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$30.4

Value

$53.07

PnL

+$4.34

Record

53%

22623-19873 (42496)

akroll<$100

Invested

$45.05

Value

$52.93

PnL

+$7.88

Record

33%

454-938 (1392)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$27.77

Value

$40.89

PnL

+$42.12

Record

27%

6838-18773 (25611)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$7.6

Value

$28.2

PnL

+$20.6

Record

42%

7010-9803 (16813)

SnapElectionAvoider<$100

Invested

$21.26

Value

$19.22

PnL

-$2.04

Record

50%

1278-1291 (2569)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23

Value

$14.75

PnL

-$8.25

Record

20%

2587-10256 (12843)

korda77<$100

Invested

$9.55

Value

$10.05

PnL

+$0.5

Record

44%

6474-8170 (14644)

VictorLudorum<$100

Invested

Value

$7.05

PnL

+$4.05

Record

52%

6272-5822 (12094)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.55

Value

$2.95

PnL

+$0.4

Record

77%

12289-3775 (16064)

god83743894CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.88

Value

$0.88

PnL

+$0.13

Record

46%

10307-11997 (22304)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 83%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

16 of 19 top traders (84%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

16 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Late

295h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

84% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 18

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.2%

82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.