Will Moonshot have the best AI model on December 15, 2026?

2 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (18%) · No at 100¢ · $147 held · ends Dec 16

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Dec 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 18%

Total Value

$146.91

Combined PnL

-$36.1

Smart Money Entry

98.8¢ → 99.7¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 11 top traders (18%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$140.58

Total Shares141

Combined PnL+$0.98

Yes9 traders

Total Value$6.33

Total Shares1,266

Combined PnL-$37.08

No — 18%Yes — 82%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

42h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

18% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 82% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes	Noavg 98.6¢	$118.34	$119.4	+$1.06	53% 7468-6589 (14057)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$21.26	$21.18	-$0.08	52% 909-844 (1753)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.8¢	$54.32	$3.48	-$16.82	38% 3804-6225 (10029)
balthazarCTR	Yesavg 2.9¢	$256.73	$1.29	-$12.55	42% 5212-7125 (12337)
QU quietparcelCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$2.43	$0.42	-$2	38% 317-524 (841)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$1.9	$0.33	-$1.57	26% 603-1747 (2350)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$14.29	$0.21	-$1.32	40% 2676-3963 (6639)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$1.11	$0.2	-$0.92	15% 29-161 (190)
iutwpfalCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$1	$0.18	-$0.83	— 12-4 (16)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$0.71	$0.13	-$0.59	51% 945-892 (1837)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$0.57	$0.1	-$0.47	15% 39-214 (253)

cigarettes

Invested

$118.34

Value

$119.4

PnL

+$1.06

Record

53%

7468-6589 (14057)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$21.26

Value

$21.18

PnL

-$0.08

Record

52%

909-844 (1753)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$54.32

Value

$3.48

PnL

-$16.82

Record

38%

3804-6225 (10029)

balthazarCTR

Yes

Invested

$256.73

Value

$1.29

PnL

-$12.55

Record

42%

5212-7125 (12337)

quietparcelCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.43

Value

$0.42

PnL

-$2

Record

38%

317-524 (841)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.9

Value

$0.33

PnL

-$1.57

Record

26%

603-1747 (2350)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.29

Value

$0.21

PnL

-$1.32

Record

40%

2676-3963 (6639)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.11

Value

$0.2

PnL

-$0.92

Record

15%

29-161 (190)

iutwpfalCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.18

PnL

-$0.83

Record

—

12-4 (16)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.71

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$0.59

Record

51%

945-892 (1837)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.57

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$0.47

Record

15%

39-214 (253)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 11 top traders (18%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

42h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

18% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 82% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.