Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (89%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $29 held · ends Dec 1

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 89%

Total Value

$29.32

Combined PnL

-$137.23

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$24.18

Total Shares24

Combined PnL-$0.01

Yes8 traders

Total Value$5.14

Total Shares3,426

Combined PnL-$137.22

No — 11%Yes — 89%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Late

225h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$24.2	$24.18	-$0.01	37% 1392-2373 (3765)
WojtekCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$5.47	$2	-$3.47	20% 412-1641 (2053)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.6¢	$26.5	$1.53	-$93.82	35% 16909-31257 (48166)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$22.46	$1.18	-$21.29	25% 180-537 (717)
SP SPLPBCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$2.71	$0.14	-$2.57	24% 666-2082 (2748)
VE VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$2.49	$0.13	-$2.36	17% 221-1065 (1286)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$1.71	$0.09	-$1.62	31% 1406-3191 (4597)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$1.03	$0.05	-$0.97	23% 176-599 (775)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$31.67	$0.01	-$11.11	35% 555-1035 (1590)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$24.2

Value

$24.18

PnL

-$0.01

Record

37%

1392-2373 (3765)

WojtekCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.47

Value

PnL

-$3.47

Record

20%

412-1641 (2053)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.5

Value

$1.53

PnL

-$93.82

Record

35%

16909-31257 (48166)

lpgbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.46

Value

$1.18

PnL

-$21.29

Record

25%

180-537 (717)

SPLPBCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.71

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$2.57

Record

24%

666-2082 (2748)

VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.49

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$2.36

Record

17%

221-1065 (1286)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.71

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$1.62

Record

31%

1406-3191 (4597)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.03

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$0.97

Record

23%

176-599 (775)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.67

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$11.11

Record

35%

555-1035 (1590)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Late

225h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.2%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8264.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

8364.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.