Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Moonshot have the #1 AI model at the end of November 2026?

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (88%) · Yes at 0.4¢ · $22 held · ends Dec 1

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 88%

Total Value

$21.83

Combined PnL

-$4.53

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$19.93

Total Shares20

Combined PnL-$0.05

Yes7 traders

Total Value$1.9

Total Shares543

Combined PnL-$4.48

No — 13%Yes — 87%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$19.98	$19.93	-$0.05	53% 5995-5369 (11364)
0X 0xAe81145A62f51cb1CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.3	$1.05	+$0.75	— 0-1 (1)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$3.95	$0.48	-$3.47	47% 4795-5410 (10205)
CU CustomTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.21	$0.21	+$0	— 0-2 (2)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$0.86	$0.11	-$0.75	12% 6-43 (49)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$0.29	$0.04	-$0.25	2% 1-59 (60)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$0.15	$0.02	-$0.13	4% 3-68 (71)
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$24.92	$0	-$0.63	40% 1470-2192 (3662)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$19.98

Value

$19.93

PnL

-$0.05

Record

53%

5995-5369 (11364)

0xAe81145A62f51cb1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.3

Value

$1.05

PnL

+$0.75

Record

—

0-1 (1)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.95

Value

$0.48

PnL

-$3.47

Record

47%

4795-5410 (10205)

CustomTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.21

Value

$0.21

PnL

+$0

Record

—

0-2 (2)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.86

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$0.75

Record

12%

6-43 (49)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.29

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$0.25

Record

1-59 (60)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.15

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.13

Record

3-68 (71)

haveagooddayCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.92

Value

PnL

-$0.63

Record

40%

1470-2192 (3662)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.4%

0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7026.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

7126.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.