Will Moonshot be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of November 2026?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 83¢ · $232 held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$231.9
$18.69
63.2¢ → 82.5¢
+31% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 83%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 64%
Freshness
Mature
40h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 62.8¢ | $90.41 | $88.45 | -$1.96 | 41% 3118-4481 (7599) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 62.6¢ | $49.89 | $60.57 | +$10.68 | 51% 4654-4528 (9182) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 60.2¢ | $45.12 | $57 | +$11.88 | 26% 860-2483 (3343) |
WA WarriorH<$100 | Noavg 67¢ | $21.15 | $13.72 | -$1.43 | 3% 1-31 (32) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $12.64 | $12.16 | -$0.48 | 39% 1297-2005 (3302) |
Invested
$90.41
Value
$88.45
PnL
-$1.96
Record
41%
3118-4481 (7599)
balthazar<$100Invested
$49.89
Value
$60.57
PnL
+$10.68
Record
51%
4654-4528 (9182)
Invested
$45.12
Value
$57
PnL
+$11.88
Record
26%
860-2483 (3343)
Invested
$21.15
Value
$13.72
PnL
-$1.43
Record
3%
1-31 (32)
Invested
$12.64
Value
$12.16
PnL
-$0.48
Record
39%
1297-2005 (3302)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.