Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of November 2026?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 85¢ · $170 held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$169.82
-$5.59
92¢ → 84.5¢
-8% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 85%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QU quietparcel | Noavg 92.7¢ | $115.86 | $105.63 | -$10.24 | 24% 77-243 (320) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $35.6 | $33.8 | -$1.8 | 49% 87-90 (177) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10.7¢ | $16.27 | $23.63 | +$7.36 | 41% 3116-4481 (7597) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $7.68 | $6.76 | -$0.92 | 39% 1297-2005 (3302) |
Invested
$115.86
Value
$105.63
PnL
-$10.24
Record
24%
77-243 (320)
Invested
$35.6
Value
$33.8
PnL
-$1.8
Record
49%
87-90 (177)
Invested
$16.27
Value
$23.63
PnL
+$7.36
Record
41%
3116-4481 (7597)
Invested
$7.68
Value
$6.76
PnL
-$0.92
Record
39%
1297-2005 (3302)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.