Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of January 2027?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 81¢ · $203 held · ends Feb 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$203.01
$37.24
81.8¢ → 80.5¢
-2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 81%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
35 35066FE58feCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11.4¢ | $57.39 | $96.4 | +$39.01 | 42% 641-882 (1523) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 79.3¢ | $31.6 | $32.06 | +$0.46 | 55% 26056-21461 (47517) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $23.7 | $24.15 | +$0.45 | 42% 6041-8253 (14294) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $18.58 | $18.93 | +$0.35 | 63% 13059-7813 (20872) |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $43.2 | $17.78 | -$2.1 | 21% 2286-8721 (11007) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $14.62 | $13.69 | -$0.93 | 31% 1943-4366 (6309) |
Invested
$57.39
Value
$96.4
PnL
+$39.01
Record
42%
641-882 (1523)
balthazar<$100Invested
$31.6
Value
$32.06
PnL
+$0.46
Record
55%
26056-21461 (47517)
Invested
$23.7
Value
$24.15
PnL
+$0.45
Record
42%
6041-8253 (14294)
Invested
$18.58
Value
$18.93
PnL
+$0.35
Record
63%
13059-7813 (20872)
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$43.2
Value
$17.78
PnL
-$2.1
Record
21%
2286-8721 (11007)
Invested
$14.62
Value
$13.69
PnL
-$0.93
Record
31%
1943-4366 (6309)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.