Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of December 2026?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 81¢ · $269 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 100%
$269.38
-$50.56
84.1¢ → 80.5¢
-4% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 81%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Istaroth | Noavg 83.5¢ | $159.69 | $120 | -$19.47 | 32% 273-569 (842) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 76.7¢ | $128.53 | $33.58 | -$31.75 | 36% 14556-26000 (40556) |
ZE zerone777<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $27.61 | $27.77 | +$0.16 | 41% 379-537 (916) |
KA kaxel78<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $22.59 | $22.72 | +$0.13 | 31% 251-564 (815) |
PO pollo07<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $22.19 | $22.31 | +$0.13 | 32% 303-642 (945) |
VA Vale54holi<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $21.38 | $21.5 | +$0.12 | 28% 159-408 (567) |
KL klli27<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $21.38 | $21.5 | +$0.12 | 31% 279-608 (887) |
IstarothInvested
$159.69
Value
$120
PnL
-$19.47
Record
32%
273-569 (842)
Invested
$128.53
Value
$33.58
PnL
-$31.75
Record
36%
14556-26000 (40556)
Invested
$27.61
Value
$27.77
PnL
+$0.16
Record
41%
379-537 (916)
Invested
$22.59
Value
$22.72
PnL
+$0.13
Record
31%
251-564 (815)
Invested
$22.19
Value
$22.31
PnL
+$0.13
Record
32%
303-642 (945)
Invested
$21.38
Value
$21.5
PnL
+$0.12
Record
28%
159-408 (567)
Invested
$21.38
Value
$21.5
PnL
+$0.12
Record
31%
279-608 (887)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.