Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in October?
3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (38%) · No at 55¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 38%
$1.1K
-$13.19
62¢ → 55¢
-11% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 86%
Freshness
Mature
38h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GR grinder1011 | Noavg 62¢ | $31.21 | $392.89 | -$85.37 | 38% 120-198 (318) |
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938 | Noavg 63.8¢ | $77.17 | $363.45 | -$15.41 | 45% 2406-2980 (5386) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 34.6¢ | $126.62 | $165.88 | +$39.26 | 35% 17577-32882 (50459) |
38 38791873984189 | Noavg 56.5¢ | $127.47 | $119.36 | -$0.88 | 48% 14412-15920 (30332) |
FI firegoldCTR<$100 | Yesavg 44¢ | $40.7 | $42.09 | +$1.85 | 59% 331-230 (561) |
DO donthackmeCTR<$100 | Yes | $43.34 | $18.2 | +$40.86 | 73% 12613-4596 (17209) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 47¢ | $9.4 | $18.2 | +$6.95 | 17% 4208-19852 (24060) |
PA pakoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 50¢ | $5 | $4.55 | -$0.45 | 65% 250-132 (382) |
Invested
$31.21
Value
$392.89
PnL
-$85.37
Record
38%
120-198 (318)
Invested
$77.17
Value
$363.45
PnL
-$15.41
Record
45%
2406-2980 (5386)
Invested
$126.62
Value
$165.88
PnL
+$39.26
Record
35%
17577-32882 (50459)
Invested
$127.47
Value
$119.36
PnL
-$0.88
Record
48%
14412-15920 (30332)
Invested
$40.7
Value
$42.09
PnL
+$1.85
Record
59%
331-230 (561)
Invested
$43.34
Value
$18.2
PnL
+$40.86
Record
73%
12613-4596 (17209)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$9.4
Value
$18.2
PnL
+$6.95
Record
17%
4208-19852 (24060)
Invested
$5
Value
$4.55
PnL
-$0.45
Record
65%
250-132 (382)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.