Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in October?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 56¢ · $208 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$207.52
$8.47
54.8¢ → 55.5¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 75%
Freshness
Late
196h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100 | Noavg 49.2¢ | $67.27 | $78 | +$10.73 | 39% 1005-1573 (2578) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Noavg 55.3¢ | $72.39 | $74.64 | +$2.26 | 48% 603-645 (1248) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 63¢ | $47.39 | $42.88 | -$4.51 | 41% 2924-4137 (7061) |
SH shiifoo<$100 | Noavg 62¢ | $7.44 | $6.84 | -$0.6 | 63% 1236-720 (1956) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 38¢ | $4.56 | $5.16 | +$0.6 | — 3-6 (9) |
Invested
$67.27
Value
$78
PnL
+$10.73
Record
39%
1005-1573 (2578)
Invested
$72.39
Value
$74.64
PnL
+$2.26
Record
48%
603-645 (1248)
Invested
$47.39
Value
$42.88
PnL
-$4.51
Record
41%
2924-4137 (7061)
Invested
$7.44
Value
$6.84
PnL
-$0.6
Record
63%
1236-720 (1956)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$4.56
Value
$5.16
PnL
+$0.6
Record
—
3-6 (9)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.