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NoYes
balthazarCTR<$100YesYes
LucerysCTR<$100YesYesYesYes
HaradwaithCTR<$100Yes
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will Mongolia win the public vote for Eurovision Asia 2026?
Resolved No. 89% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
9
Yes 88%
Total Value
$30
Combined PnL
-$17.14
Smart Money Signal
Yes
8 of 9 top traders (89%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
Loading chart data…
Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No1 trader
Total Value$30
Total Shares30
Combined PnL+$0.03
Yes8 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares486
Combined PnL-$17.17
No — 11%Yes — 89%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $30 | +$0.03 | 29% 1113-2674 (3787) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.1¢ | $8.92 | — | -$8.92 | 39% 3661-5820 (9481) |
balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.1¢ | $2.5 | — | -$2.5 | 43% 5103-6732 (11835) |
QU quietparcelCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.1¢ | $1.5 | — | -$1.49 | 34% 238-461 (699) |
LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.1¢ | $2.13 | — | -$2.1 | 35% 3807-6929 (10736) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.1¢ | $0.81 | — | -$0.81 | 26% 715-2057 (2772) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.1¢ | $0.61 | — | -$0.6 | 29% 3215-8065 (11280) |
AN anothercoinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.1¢ | $0.16 | — | -$0.16 | 37% 1544-2643 (4187) |
HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.1¢ | $0.63 | — | -$0.59 | 30% 197-458 (655) |
NO
northdrawer<$100Invested
$29.97
Value
$30
PnL
+$0.03
Record
29%
1113-2674 (3787)
XT
xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100Invested
$8.92
Value
—
PnL
-$8.92
Record
39%
3661-5820 (9481)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$2.5
Value
—
PnL
-$2.5
Record
43%
5103-6732 (11835)
QU
quietparcelCTR<$100Invested
$1.5
Value
—
PnL
-$1.49
Record
34%
238-461 (699)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$2.13
Value
—
PnL
-$2.1
Record
35%
3807-6929 (10736)
LU
luciebotCTR<$100Invested
$0.81
Value
—
PnL
-$0.81
Record
26%
715-2057 (2772)
QW
qwen300.fundCTR<$100Invested
$0.61
Value
—
PnL
-$0.6
Record
29%
3215-8065 (11280)
AN
anothercoinCTR<$100Invested
$0.16
Value
—
PnL
-$0.16
Record
37%
1544-2643 (4187)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$0.63
Value
—
PnL
-$0.59
Record
30%
197-458 (655)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xd7759333...8d839f
Slug
will-mongolia-win-the-public-vote-for-eurovision-asia-2026