Will Mongolia win Eurovision Asia 2026?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 100¢ · $206 held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 57%
$206.38
-$18.36
99.8¢ → 99.9¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+7 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 83%
Freshness
Mature
25h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $95.54 | $95.63 | +$0.1 | 53% 6618-5816 (12434) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $99.9 | $74.89 | -$0.77 | 41% 1570-2276 (3846) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $29.94 | $29.97 | +$0.03 | 30% 989-2362 (3351) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $4.99 | $5 | +$0.01 | 37% 165-281 (446) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.1¢ | $15.49 | $0.74 | -$14.75 | 39% 3479-5356 (8835) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.1¢ | $2.62 | $0.13 | -$2.5 | 30% 108-251 (359) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.1¢ | $0.5 | $0.02 | -$0.48 | 45% 4955-6107 (11062) |
Invested
$95.54
Value
$95.63
PnL
+$0.1
Record
53%
6618-5816 (12434)
Invested
$99.9
Value
$74.89
PnL
-$0.77
Record
41%
1570-2276 (3846)
Invested
$29.94
Value
$29.97
PnL
+$0.03
Record
30%
989-2362 (3351)
Invested
$4.99
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.01
Record
37%
165-281 (446)
Invested
$15.49
Value
$0.74
PnL
-$14.75
Record
39%
3479-5356 (8835)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$2.62
Value
$0.13
PnL
-$2.5
Record
30%
108-251 (359)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$0.5
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$0.48
Record
45%
4955-6107 (11062)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.