Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

16 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold No (76%) · No at 100¢ · $3K held · ends Dec 31

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 76%

Total Value

$3.4K

Combined PnL

-$59.26

Smart Money Entry

98.4¢ → 99.8¢

+1% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

16 of 21 top traders (76%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No16 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares3,378

Combined PnL+$58.42

Yes5 traders

Total Value$44.34

Total Shares8,062

Combined PnL-$117.67

No — 76%Yes — 24%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Late

4946h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

40 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

74% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 6

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI Bigggggggg	Noavg 98.6¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$18.25	42% 3178-4309 (7487)
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 99.6¢	$470.19	$470.86	+$0.67	59% 11831-8157 (19988)
GH ghorrock	Noavg 99.1¢	$157.77	$131.47	+$0.58	58% 19455-14308 (33763)
MI mildwindow27	Noavg 99¢	$105.93	$106.63	+$0.7	47% 8350-9514 (17864)
DO donthackme	Noavg 98.1¢	$101.34	$102.83	+$1.49	73% 12861-4791 (17652)
GO godblessme2026	Noavg 99.5¢	$101.24	$101.36	+$0.12	42% 7010-9803 (16813)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$74.85	$74.81	-$0.04	51% 3681-3532 (7213)
GI GingerMcKenna<$100	Noavg 94.2¢	$70.65	$74.62	+$3.97	38% 3070-4952 (8022)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$59.07	$59.79	+$0.72	49% 8836-9340 (18176)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 86.1¢	$74.3	$52.77	+$4.13	35% 18146-33983 (52129)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$41.67	$41.67	+$0	46% 10307-11997 (22304)
IN influenz.eth	Noavg 87¢	$621.88	$30.08	+$25.91	42% 10352-14389 (24741)
EA EatprayloveCTR	Yesavg 1.9¢	$144.74	$29.03	-$107.99	57% 796-597 (1393)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Noavg 95.3¢	$53.94	$25.04	-$0.53	77% 12289-3775 (16064)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$24.49	$24.49	-$0	40% 283-428 (711)
0X 0x25db6cA5935ae858A5c1F2dCD5c62939805328dE-1770665598557CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$0.05	$14.29	+$3.86	44% 137-173 (310)
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$5.11	$4.98	+$2.4	48% 9803-10718 (20521)
Gr33d<$100	Noavg 95.8¢	$2.55	$2.6	+$0.05	79% 2718-703 (3421)
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100	Yes	$0.8	$0.8	-$0.4	6% 14-231 (245)
JO JordanMooneyCTR<$100	Yes	$28.02	$0.17	-$13.02	36% 2018-3600 (5618)
LE LetTheGoodTimesRollCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.6¢	$4.35	$0.06	-$0.12	45% 3684-4416 (8100)

Bigggggggg

Invested

$2,046.83

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$18.25

Record

42%

3178-4309 (7487)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$470.19

Value

$470.86

PnL

+$0.67

Record

59%

11831-8157 (19988)

ghorrock

Invested

$157.77

Value

$131.47

PnL

+$0.58

Record

58%

19455-14308 (33763)

mildwindow27

Invested

$105.93

Value

$106.63

PnL

+$0.7

Record

47%

8350-9514 (17864)

donthackme

Invested

$101.34

Value

$102.83

PnL

+$1.49

Record

73%

12861-4791 (17652)

godblessme2026

Invested

$101.24

Value

$101.36

PnL

+$0.12

Record

42%

7010-9803 (16813)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$74.85

Value

$74.81

PnL

-$0.04

Record

51%

3681-3532 (7213)

GingerMcKenna<$100

Invested

$70.65

Value

$74.62

PnL

+$3.97

Record

38%

3070-4952 (8022)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$59.07

Value

$59.79

PnL

+$0.72

Record

49%

8836-9340 (18176)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$74.3

Value

$52.77

PnL

+$4.13

Record

35%

18146-33983 (52129)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$41.67

Value

$41.67

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

10307-11997 (22304)

influenz.eth

Invested

$621.88

Value

$30.08

PnL

+$25.91

Record

42%

10352-14389 (24741)

EatprayloveCTR

Yes

Invested

$144.74

Value

$29.03

PnL

-$107.99

Record

57%

796-597 (1393)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Invested

$53.94

Value

$25.04

PnL

-$0.53

Record

77%

12289-3775 (16064)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100

Invested

$24.49

Value

$24.49

PnL

-$0

Record

40%

283-428 (711)

0x25db6cA5935ae858A5c1F2dCD5c62939805328dE-1770665598557CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.05

Value

$14.29

PnL

+$3.86

Record

44%

137-173 (310)

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Invested

$5.11

Value

$4.98

PnL

+$2.4

Record

48%

9803-10718 (20521)

Gr33d<$100

Invested

$2.55

Value

$2.6

PnL

+$0.05

Record

79%

2718-703 (3421)

NyetRiskCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.8

Value

$0.8

PnL

-$0.4

Record

14-231 (245)

JordanMooneyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.02

Value

$0.17

PnL

-$13.02

Record

36%

2018-3600 (5618)

LetTheGoodTimesRollCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.35

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$0.12

Record

45%

3684-4416 (8100)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

16 of 21 top traders (76%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Late

4946h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

40 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

74% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 6

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.