Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 13 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Mitch Keller win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award?

13 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (93%) · Yes at 0.0¢ · $6 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 93%

Total Value

$5.81

Combined PnL

-$15.59

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

13 of 14 top traders (93%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$5.25

Total Shares5

Combined PnL-$4.28

Yes13 traders

Total Value$0.56

Total Shares1,119

Combined PnL-$11.31

No — 7%Yes — 93%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 48%

Freshness

Late

134h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

93% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 93% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PE peepeepooppoop<$100	Noavg 99¢	$9.53	$5.25	-$4.28	50% 2630-2578 (5208)
GO god83743894CTR<$100	Yes	$0.17	$0.17	-$4.65	38% 16029-25855 (41884)
RA rainbowliliesCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$1.47	$0.1	-$1.37	38% 2966-4743 (7709)
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0	$0.07	+$0	44% 13945-17925 (31870)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$0.44	$0.07	-$1.98	49% 43869-46551 (90420)
JO JordanMooneyCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$0.6	$0.03	-$0.84	34% 2142-4117 (6259)
GI GingerMcKennaCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$0.43	$0.03	-$0.6	37% 3313-5705 (9018)
CR crckrCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$0.58	$0.02	-$0.56	28% 797-2091 (2888)
AH aHjCzCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0	$0.02	+$0	36% 6093-11041 (17134)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0	$0.02	-$0.52	50% 59994-58808 (118802)
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0	$0.02	-$0.51	45% 7018-8417 (15435)
AU auros2CTR<$100	Yes	$0.01	$0.01	-$0.28	— 6-1 (7)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yes	$0.01	$0.01	+$0	33% 20011-40834 (60845)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yes	$0	$0	+$0	28% 3048-7956 (11004)

peepeepooppoop<$100

Invested

$9.53

Value

$5.25

PnL

-$4.28

Record

50%

2630-2578 (5208)

god83743894CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.17

Value

$0.17

PnL

-$4.65

Record

38%

16029-25855 (41884)

rainbowliliesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.47

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$1.37

Record

38%

2966-4743 (7709)

godblessme2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.07

PnL

+$0

Record

44%

13945-17925 (31870)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.44

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$1.98

Record

49%

43869-46551 (90420)

JordanMooneyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.6

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.84

Record

34%

2142-4117 (6259)

GingerMcKennaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.43

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.6

Record

37%

3313-5705 (9018)

crckrCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.58

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.56

Record

28%

797-2091 (2888)

aHjCzCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.02

PnL

+$0

Record

36%

6093-11041 (17134)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.52

Record

50%

59994-58808 (118802)

VictorLudorumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.51

Record

45%

7018-8417 (15435)

auros2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.28

Record

—

6-1 (7)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.01

PnL

+$0

Record

33%

20011-40834 (60845)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

28%

3048-7956 (11004)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

13 of 14 top traders (93%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 48%

Freshness

Late

134h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

93% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 93% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.