Will "Misty Green" be the top US Netflix movie this week?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 100¢ · $142 held · ends Nov 18

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$141.91

Combined PnL

-$26.98

Smart Money Entry

99.6¢ → 99.8¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$141.11

Total Shares141

Combined PnL-$1.9

Yes3 traders

Total Value$0.8

Total Shares401

Combined PnL-$25.07

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO northdrawer	Noavg 99.9¢	$119.88	$79.84	-$1.9	30% 1175-2733 (3908)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$29.94	$29.97	+$0.03	31% 1122-2474 (3596)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$16.12	$16.12	+$0	42% 1694-2332 (4026)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5.09	$5.09	-$0	51% 945-892 (1837)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5.07	$5.07	-$0.01	49% 854-884 (1738)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 92¢	$5.03	$5.01	-$0.02	38% 3808-6231 (10039)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.8¢	$8.99	$0.38	-$8.61	42% 5212-7125 (12337)
DO donthackmeCTR	Yesavg 4.8¢	$139.77	$0.37	-$14.64	26% 55-157 (212)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.8¢	$16.07	$0.05	-$1.83	35% 3905-7251 (11156)

northdrawer

Invested

$119.88

Value

$79.84

PnL

-$1.9

Record

30%

1175-2733 (3908)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$29.94

Value

$29.97

PnL

+$0.03

Record

31%

1122-2474 (3596)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$16.12

Value

$16.12

PnL

+$0

Record

42%

1694-2332 (4026)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$5.09

Value

$5.09

PnL

-$0

Record

51%

945-892 (1837)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$5.07

Value

$5.07

PnL

-$0.01

Record

49%

854-884 (1738)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$5.03

Value

$5.01

PnL

-$0.02

Record

38%

3808-6231 (10039)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.99

Value

$0.38

PnL

-$8.61

Record

42%

5212-7125 (12337)

donthackmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$139.77

Value

$0.37

PnL

-$14.64

Record

26%

55-157 (212)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.07

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$1.83

Record

35%

3905-7251 (11156)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.