Will "Misty Green" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?
12 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $513 held · ends Nov 18
⚖️
Neutral
No
12
No 100%
$513.22
-$9.85
99.7¢ → 98.9¢
-1% since entry · 12 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
12 of 12 top traders (100%)10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+25 pts consensus
Breadth
12 traders
Top 2 hold 56%
Freshness
Mature
18h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 99.7¢ | $193.89 | $185.07 | -$8.82 | 38% 3787-6190 (9977) |
 balthazar | Noavg 99.7¢ | $100.59 | $99.76 | -$0.84 | 42% 5200-7083 (12283) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $60.46 | $60.41 | -$0.05 | 31% 1115-2464 (3579) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $44.87 | $44.87 | +$0 | 42% 1683-2319 (4002) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $29.94 | $29.91 | -$0.03 | 30% 1165-2723 (3888) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.06 | $29 | -$0.06 | 34% 347-663 (1010) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $19.98 | $19.94 | -$0.04 | 35% 325-598 (923) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $19.94 | $19.94 | +$0 | 53% 7447-6561 (14008) |
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $10.18 | $10.18 | +$0 | 52% 936-867 (1803) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $6.98 | $6.97 | -$0.01 | 38% 319-511 (830) |
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $5.17 | $5.17 | +$0 | 57% 831-625 (1456) |
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $2 | $1.99 | -$0 | 52% 900-835 (1735) |
Invested
$193.89
Value
$185.07
PnL
-$8.82
Record
38%
3787-6190 (9977)
balthazarInvested
$100.59
Value
$99.76
PnL
-$0.84
Record
42%
5200-7083 (12283)
Invested
$60.46
Value
$60.41
PnL
-$0.05
Record
31%
1115-2464 (3579)
Invested
$44.87
Value
$44.87
PnL
+$0
Record
42%
1683-2319 (4002)
Invested
$29.94
Value
$29.91
PnL
-$0.03
Record
30%
1165-2723 (3888)
Invested
$29.06
Value
$29
PnL
-$0.06
Record
34%
347-663 (1010)
Invested
$19.98
Value
$19.94
PnL
-$0.04
Record
35%
325-598 (923)
Invested
$19.94
Value
$19.94
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
7447-6561 (14008)
Invested
$10.18
Value
$10.18
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
936-867 (1803)
Invested
$6.98
Value
$6.97
PnL
-$0.01
Record
38%
319-511 (830)
Invested
$5.17
Value
$5.17
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
831-625 (1456)
Invested
$2
Value
$1.99
PnL
-$0
Record
52%
900-835 (1735)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
xtxpleasecallme
No — $185.07
balthazar
No — $99.76
mildwindow27
No — $60.41
haveagoodday
No — $44.87
northdrawer
No — $29.91
godblessme2026
No — $29
smallreceipt
No — $19.94
cigarettes
No — $19.94
0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343
No — $10.18
god83743894
No — $6.97