Will Mistral have the best AI model on December 15, 2026?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 100¢ · $262 held · ends Dec 16

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Dec 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$261.71

Combined PnL

-$24.07

Smart Money Entry

99.4¢ → 99.7¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$259.68

Total Shares260

Combined PnL-$1.29

Yes4 traders

Total Value$2.03

Total Shares675

Combined PnL-$22.78

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Mature

35h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 98.7¢	$98.7	$99.9	+$1.2	53% 6646-5820 (12466)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$74.93	$74.93	+$0	30% 189-443 (632)
iutwpfal<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$79.79	$44.96	-$0.83	— 10-4 (14)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$89.91	$29.91	-$1.67	41% 1573-2277 (3850)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$9.98	$9.99	+$0.01	31% 225-501 (726)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.8¢	$14.07	$1.49	-$12.58	39% 3489-5413 (8902)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$25.15	$0.42	-$3.73	45% 4975-6198 (11173)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$0.57	$0.06	-$0.51	8% 9-110 (119)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$15	$0.05	-$5.95	18% 838-3822 (4660)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$98.7

Value

$99.9

PnL

+$1.2

Record

53%

6646-5820 (12466)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$74.93

Value

$74.93

PnL

+$0

Record

30%

189-443 (632)

iutwpfal<$100

Invested

$79.79

Value

$44.96

PnL

-$0.83

Record

—

10-4 (14)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$89.91

Value

$29.91

PnL

-$1.67

Record

41%

1573-2277 (3850)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$9.98

Value

$9.99

PnL

+$0.01

Record

31%

225-501 (726)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.07

Value

$1.49

PnL

-$12.58

Record

39%

3489-5413 (8902)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.15

Value

$0.42

PnL

-$3.73

Record

45%

4975-6198 (11173)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.57

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$0.51

Record

9-110 (119)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$5.95

Record

18%

838-3822 (4660)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Mature

35h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.