Will Mississippi be the closest Senate race in 2026?

2 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (13%) · Yes at 89¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 4

Yes89¢No11¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 13%

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

-$46.23

Research grade

NeutralYes at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 15 top traders (13%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes89%

No11%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,623

Combined PnL+$4.41

No13 traders

Total Value$276.19

Total Shares1,585

Combined PnL-$50.64

Yes — 13%No — 87%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Yesavg 71.7¢	$2.1K	$1.5K	+$1.95	45% 2525-3059 (5584)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Noavg 16¢	$125.3	$173.4	+$58.11	35% 17800-33165 (50965)
LP lpgb<$100	Yes	$9.18	$30.55	+$2.45	26% 353-995 (1348)
LucerysCTR<$100	Noavg 19.8¢	$33.01	$29.05	-$3.96	79% 12088-3268 (15356)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 69.7¢	$49.85	$16.28	-$33.57	53% 28804-25713 (54517)
GO god83743894CTR<$100	Noavg 26.1¢	$17.81	$12.52	+$0.36	46% 10132-11838 (21970)
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100	Noavg 5¢	$2.79	$11.78	+$8.99	47% 8156-9340 (17496)
QU quietparcelCTR<$100	Noavg 27.9¢	$11.17	$8.46	-$2.71	50% 9583-9583 (19166)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Noavg 37.9¢	$96.38	$6.1	-$73.22	49% 8636-9158 (17794)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Noavg 44.1¢	$11.03	$4.79	-$6.24	30% 2222-5090 (7312)
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100	Noavg 52.2¢	$28.78	$4.37	+$3.03	41% 6791-9646 (16437)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Noavg 6.3¢	$7.63	$4.37	-$3.26	55% 4365-3560 (7925)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 4.6¢	$0.94	$4.34	+$3.4	40% 2104-3149 (5253)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 31.7¢	$1.63	$0.52	-$1.11	47% 2081-2362 (4443)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 32.7¢	$0.65	$0.2	-$0.45	39% 1003-1586 (2589)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Yes

Invested

$2,056.7

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$1.95

Record

45%

2525-3059 (5584)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Invested

$125.3

Value

$173.4

PnL

+$58.11

Record

35%

17800-33165 (50965)

lpgb<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.18

Value

$30.55

PnL

+$2.45

Record

26%

353-995 (1348)

LucerysCTR<$100

Invested

$33.01

Value

$29.05

PnL

-$3.96

Record

79%

12088-3268 (15356)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$49.85

Value

$16.28

PnL

-$33.57

Record

53%

28804-25713 (54517)

god83743894CTR<$100

Invested

$17.81

Value

$12.52

PnL

+$0.36

Record

46%

10132-11838 (21970)

mildwindow27CTR<$100

Invested

$2.79

Value

$11.78

PnL

+$8.99

Record

47%

8156-9340 (17496)

quietparcelCTR<$100

Invested

$11.17

Value

$8.46

PnL

-$2.71

Record

50%

9583-9583 (19166)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Invested

$96.38

Value

$6.1

PnL

-$73.22

Record

49%

8636-9158 (17794)

luciebotCTR<$100

Invested

$11.03

Value

$4.79

PnL

-$6.24

Record

30%

2222-5090 (7312)

godblessme2026CTR<$100

Invested

$28.78

Value

$4.37

PnL

+$3.03

Record

41%

6791-9646 (16437)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Invested

$7.63

Value

$4.37

PnL

-$3.26

Record

55%

4365-3560 (7925)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$0.94

Value

$4.34

PnL

+$3.4

Record

40%

2104-3149 (5253)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$1.63

Value

$0.52

PnL

-$1.11

Record

47%

2081-2362 (4443)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$0.65

Value

$0.2

PnL

-$0.45

Record

39%

1003-1586 (2589)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 89%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 15 top traders (13%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.1%

88.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.