Will Minnesota be the closest Senate race in 2026?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 98¢ · $259 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$258.69
-$24.54
90.2¢ → 98¢
+9% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 89.5¢ | $76.63 | $82.74 | +$6.12 | 49% 9109-9642 (18751) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 90.1¢ | $63.1 | $67.66 | +$4.56 | 55% 26056-21461 (47517) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 13.2¢ | $83.2 | $44.35 | -$38.84 | 35% 16978-31455 (48433) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 89.9¢ | $17.98 | $19.33 | +$1.35 | 49% 7501-7830 (15331) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 91.6¢ | $18.32 | $19.33 | +$1.01 | 56% 18394-14718 (33112) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 91.6¢ | $14.8 | $15.61 | +$0.81 | 60% 7190-4757 (11947) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $9.2 | $9.67 | +$0.47 | 53% 8972-8031 (17003) |
Invested
$76.63
Value
$82.74
PnL
+$6.12
Record
49%
9109-9642 (18751)
balthazar<$100Invested
$63.1
Value
$67.66
PnL
+$4.56
Record
55%
26056-21461 (47517)
Invested
$83.2
Value
$44.35
PnL
-$38.84
Record
35%
16978-31455 (48433)
Invested
$17.98
Value
$19.33
PnL
+$1.35
Record
49%
7501-7830 (15331)
Invested
$18.32
Value
$19.33
PnL
+$1.01
Record
56%
18394-14718 (33112)
Invested
$14.8
Value
$15.61
PnL
+$0.81
Record
60%
7190-4757 (11947)
Invested
$9.2
Value
$9.67
PnL
+$0.47
Record
53%
8972-8031 (17003)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.