Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will MiniMax have the best AI model on December 15, 2026?

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (70%) · Yes at 0.4¢ · $173 held · ends Dec 16

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Dec 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 70%

Total Value

$173.44

Combined PnL

-$26.09

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$168.55

Total Shares169

Combined PnL+$1.65

Yes7 traders

Total Value$4.89

Total Shares1,087

Combined PnL-$27.74

No — 30%Yes — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Late

59h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 97.7¢	$97.74	$99.6	+$1.86	53% 7051-6190 (13241)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$47.89	$47.75	-$0.14	34% 276-525 (801)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$21.27	$21.2	-$0.06	49% 789-829 (1618)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.8¢	$16.57	$2.67	-$13.89	39% 3645-5777 (9422)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$8.28	$1.3	-$6.98	43% 5075-6626 (11701)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.8¢	$4.26	$0.33	-$3.93	16% 24-123 (147)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$1.54	$0.24	-$1.3	42% 2632-3661 (6293)
iutwpfalCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$1	$0.16	-$0.84	— 12-4 (16)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$0.4	$0.09	-$0.31	32% 168-365 (533)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$0.57	$0.09	-$0.48	13% 22-150 (172)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$97.74

Value

$99.6

PnL

+$1.86

Record

53%

7051-6190 (13241)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$47.89

Value

$47.75

PnL

-$0.14

Record

34%

276-525 (801)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$21.27

Value

$21.2

PnL

-$0.06

Record

49%

789-829 (1618)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.57

Value

$2.67

PnL

-$13.89

Record

39%

3645-5777 (9422)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.28

Value

$1.3

PnL

-$6.98

Record

43%

5075-6626 (11701)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.26

Value

$0.33

PnL

-$3.93

Record

16%

24-123 (147)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.54

Value

$0.24

PnL

-$1.3

Record

42%

2632-3661 (6293)

iutwpfalCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$0.84

Record

—

12-4 (16)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.4

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$0.31

Record

32%

168-365 (533)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.57

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$0.48

Record

13%

22-150 (172)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Late

59h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.5%

0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6535.00

Max Loss

-$100.00

6635.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.