Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (71%) · Yes at 0.9¢ · $137 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 71%

Total Value

$137.03

Combined PnL

-$28.04

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$115.33

Total Shares116

Combined PnL+$25.66

Yes5 traders

Total Value$21.71

Total Shares2,554

Combined PnL-$53.7

No — 29%Yes — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Late

630h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$17.35	$85.57	-$0.23	56% 3732-2932 (6664)
GI GingerMcKenna<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$85.96	$29.76	+$25.9	39% 2924-4522 (7446)
paddaaCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$40.12	$10.4	-$29.72	56% 839-647 (1486)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.2¢	$27.79	$7.33	-$20.46	35% 16906-31245 (48151)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$1.2	$1.7	+$0.5	44% 2038-2632 (4670)
smellyEllieCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$0.89	$1.26	+$0.37	50% 987-1001 (1988)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$5.41	$1.01	-$4.4	25% 180-534 (714)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$17.35

Value

$85.57

PnL

-$0.23

Record

56%

3732-2932 (6664)

GingerMcKenna<$100

Invested

$85.96

Value

$29.76

PnL

+$25.9

Record

39%

2924-4522 (7446)

paddaaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$40.12

Value

$10.4

PnL

-$29.72

Record

56%

839-647 (1486)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.79

Value

$7.33

PnL

-$20.46

Record

35%

16906-31245 (48151)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.2

Value

$1.7

PnL

+$0.5

Record

44%

2038-2632 (4670)

smellyEllieCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.89

Value

$1.26

PnL

+$0.37

Record

50%

987-1001 (1988)

lpgbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.41

Value

$1.01

PnL

-$4.4

Record

25%

180-534 (714)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Late

630h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.9%

0.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5052.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

5152.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.