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viniiNo
KimchiCapitalNo
CoinTrick<$100NoYesYes
Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was No — and it was correct. Winning outcome: No
Will Microsoft (MSFT) Q1 total capital expenditures be above $68B?
Resolved No. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was right.
RESOLVED
🏆
Won
Consensus Traders
5
No 50%
Total Value
$1.4K
Combined PnL
$56.03
Smart Money Signal
No
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No3 traders
Total Value$1.4K
Total Shares1,360
Combined PnL+$141.23
Yes2 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares1,065
Combined PnL-$85.21
No — 60%Yes — 40%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
vinii | Noavg 91.2¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$109.54 | 74% 2703-970 (3673) |
KimchiCapital | Noavg 85¢ | $180.2 | $111.4 | +$31.7 | 76% 517-161 (678) |
CoinTrick<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | — | — | +$0 | 98% 3124-75 (3199) |
SB sbimbgCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8¢ | $40 | — | -$40 | 70% 3133-1349 (4482) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8¢ | $45.21 | — | -$45.21 | 36% 14908-27031 (41939) |
viniiInvested
$1,139.42
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$109.54
Record
74%
2703-970 (3673)
KimchiCapitalInvested
$180.2
Value
$111.4
PnL
+$31.7
Record
76%
517-161 (678)
CoinTrick<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
98%
3124-75 (3199)
SB
sbimbgCTR<$100Invested
$40
Value
—
PnL
-$40
Record
70%
3133-1349 (4482)
XT
xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100Invested
$45.21
Value
—
PnL
-$45.21
Record
36%
14908-27031 (41939)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x614d8db8...e7aed2
Slug
will-microsoft-msft-q1-total-capital-expenditures-be-above-20261008120059000-68b