Will Microsoft have the best AI model on December 15, 2026?

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 100¢ · $309 held · ends Dec 16

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Dec 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 40%

Total Value

$308.79

Combined PnL

-$29.55

Smart Money Entry

99.6¢ → 99.9¢

+0% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$306.12

Total Shares307

Combined PnL+$0.26

Yes6 traders

Total Value$2.67

Total Shares911

Combined PnL-$29.81

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GR graynotebook19	Noavg 99.9¢	$100.59	$100.44	-$0.15	27% 1021-2711 (3732)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$99.1	$99.7	+$0.6	53% 7051-6190 (13241)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$84.91	$84.75	-$0.16	30% 1043-2403 (3446)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$21.27	$21.24	-$0.03	49% 758-801 (1559)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 3¢	$278.86	$1.58	-$17.31	39% 3645-5777 (9422)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$46.74	$0.75	-$7.13	43% 5075-6626 (11701)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$1.11	$0.12	-$1	16% 24-123 (147)
iutwpfalCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$1	$0.11	-$0.9	— 12-4 (16)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$68.23	$0.06	-$2.96	42% 2632-3661 (6293)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$0.57	$0.06	-$0.51	13% 22-150 (172)

graynotebook19

Invested

$100.59

Value

$100.44

PnL

-$0.15

Record

27%

1021-2711 (3732)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$99.1

Value

$99.7

PnL

+$0.6

Record

53%

7051-6190 (13241)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$84.91

Value

$84.75

PnL

-$0.16

Record

30%

1043-2403 (3446)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$21.27

Value

$21.24

PnL

-$0.03

Record

49%

758-801 (1559)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$278.86

Value

$1.58

PnL

-$17.31

Record

39%

3645-5777 (9422)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$46.74

Value

$0.75

PnL

-$7.13

Record

43%

5075-6626 (11701)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.11

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$1

Record

16%

24-123 (147)

iutwpfalCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$0.9

Record

—

12-4 (16)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$68.23

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$2.96

Record

42%

2632-3661 (6293)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.57

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$0.51

Record

13%

22-150 (172)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.