Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30, 2026?

3 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (27%) · Yes at 92¢ · $414 held

Yes92¢No8¢View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 27%

Total Value

$414.36

Combined PnL

-$30.75

Smart Money Entry

85¢ → 91.5¢

+8% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 11 top traders (27%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes92%

No9%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$341.95

Total Shares390

Combined PnL+$9.58

No8 traders

Total Value$72.36

Total Shares816

Combined PnL-$40.33

Yes — 27%No — 73%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Mature

45h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR Prinas	Yesavg 84.9¢	$201.25	$201.25	+$16.85	80% 314-78 (392)
Istaroth	Yesavg 83¢	$101.88	$90.93	-$8.68	14% 461-2758 (3219)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Yesavg 88.9¢	$48.36	$49.78	+$1.42	77% 12319-3782 (16101)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Noavg 14.1¢	$82.27	$30	-$18.3	28% 485-1268 (1753)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Noavg 14.2¢	$72.98	$16.48	-$1.89	35% 18181-34050 (52231)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Noavg 15¢	$12	$7.2	-$4.8	18% 345-1584 (1929)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Noavg 15.7¢	$19.48	$6.03	-$7.92	29% 2440-5849 (8289)
KO korda77CTR<$100	Noavg 17¢	$8.16	$4.32	-$3.84	44% 6482-8172 (14654)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 14.5¢	$20.16	$3.6	-$2.2	59% 11839-8177 (20016)
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100	Noavg 9.3¢	$2.8	$2.55	-$0.25	51% 3696-3543 (7239)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Noavg 13.7¢	$3.32	$2.18	-$1.14	50% 659-658 (1317)

Prinas

Yes

Invested

$201.25

Value

$201.25

PnL

+$16.85

Record

80%

314-78 (392)

Istaroth

Yes

Invested

$101.88

Value

$90.93

PnL

-$8.68

Record

14%

461-2758 (3219)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Yes

Invested

$48.36

Value

$49.78

PnL

+$1.42

Record

77%

12319-3782 (16101)

lpgbCTR<$100

Invested

$82.27

Value

$30

PnL

-$18.3

Record

28%

485-1268 (1753)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Invested

$72.98

Value

$16.48

PnL

-$1.89

Record

35%

18181-34050 (52231)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Invested

$12

Value

$7.2

PnL

-$4.8

Record

18%

345-1584 (1929)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Invested

$19.48

Value

$6.03

PnL

-$7.92

Record

29%

2440-5849 (8289)

korda77CTR<$100

Invested

$8.16

Value

$4.32

PnL

-$3.84

Record

44%

6482-8172 (14654)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$20.16

Value

$3.6

PnL

-$2.2

Record

59%

11839-8177 (20016)

haveagooddayCTR<$100

Invested

$2.8

Value

$2.55

PnL

-$0.25

Record

51%

3696-3543 (7239)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Invested

$3.32

Value

$2.18

PnL

-$1.14

Record

50%

659-658 (1317)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 92%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 11 top traders (27%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Mature

45h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.8%

91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.