Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30, 2026?

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (82%) · No at 73¢ · $779 held · ends Dec 1

Yes28¢No72¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 82%

Total Value

$778.72

Combined PnL

-$1.29

Smart Money Entry

78¢ → 72.5¢

-7% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes28%

No73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$620.25

Total Shares800

Combined PnL-$10.42

Yes2 traders

Total Value$158.48

Total Shares683

Combined PnL+$9.13

No — 82%Yes — 18%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Late

144h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

82% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (11 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

sniperYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 82% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 78.7¢	$326.15	$318.38	-$7.77	41% 3010-4414 (7424)
HA HauchnCTR	Yesavg 21.8¢	$132.62	$141.08	+$8.46	39% 27-42 (69)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 72.6¢	$101.6	$107.52	+$5.92	52% 5322-4827 (10149)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 75.2¢	$61.69	$62.98	+$1.29	66% 4056-2071 (6127)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 84.9¢	$36.68	$33.18	-$3.5	35% 2910-5328 (8238)
SU SulkingCrypto<$100	Noavg 75.1¢	$26.26	$26	-$0.26	— 1-9 (10)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 84.9¢	$25.47	$23.04	-$2.43	11% 35-271 (306)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 85¢	$20.4	$18.43	-$1.97	28% 2449-6153 (8602)
WordleAddictCTR<$100	Yesavg 22.3¢	$16.73	$17.4	+$0.67	— 0-2 (2)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 84.9¢	$16.98	$15.36	-$1.62	50% 4494-4439 (8933)
LornaPredicts<$100	Noavg 77.2¢	$15.44	$15.36	-$0.08	17% 12-60 (72)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$326.15

Value

$318.38

PnL

-$7.77

Record

41%

3010-4414 (7424)

HauchnCTR

Yes

Invested

$132.62

Value

$141.08

PnL

+$8.46

Record

39%

27-42 (69)

cigarettes

Invested

$101.6

Value

$107.52

PnL

+$5.92

Record

52%

5322-4827 (10149)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$61.69

Value

$62.98

PnL

+$1.29

Record

66%

4056-2071 (6127)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$36.68

Value

$33.18

PnL

-$3.5

Record

35%

2910-5328 (8238)

SulkingCrypto<$100

Invested

$26.26

Value

$26

PnL

-$0.26

Record

—

1-9 (10)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$25.47

Value

$23.04

PnL

-$2.43

Record

11%

35-271 (306)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$20.4

Value

$18.43

PnL

-$1.97

Record

28%

2449-6153 (8602)

WordleAddictCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.73

Value

$17.4

PnL

+$0.67

Record

—

0-2 (2)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$16.98

Value

$15.36

PnL

-$1.62

Record

50%

4494-4439 (8933)

LornaPredicts<$100

Invested

$15.44

Value

$15.36

PnL

-$0.08

Record

17%

12-60 (72)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 73%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Late

144h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

82% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (11 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

sniperYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 82% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.3%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.63

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.