Will Mickey Levy be the next Speaker of the Knesset?
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 100¢ · $130 held · ends Mar 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 88%
$130.15
$1.8
97.9¢ → 100¢
+2% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 46%
Freshness
Late
49h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 46% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $29.7 | $29.99 | +$0.29 | 26% 860-2483 (3343) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $29.7 | $29.99 | +$0.29 | 27% 936-2514 (3450) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $19.8 | $19.99 | +$0.19 | 51% 4707-4542 (9249) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $18.2 | $19.99 | +$1.79 | 53% 5727-5123 (10850) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $15.02 | $15.16 | +$0.14 | 17% 66-330 (396) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $7.99 | $8 | +$0 | 38% 3295-5393 (8688) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $6.99 | $7 | +$0 | 79% 428-113 (541) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1¢ | $0.95 | $0.05 | -$0.9 | 41% 3127-4493 (7620) |
Invested
$29.7
Value
$29.99
PnL
+$0.29
Record
26%
860-2483 (3343)
Invested
$29.7
Value
$29.99
PnL
+$0.29
Record
27%
936-2514 (3450)
balthazar<$100Invested
$19.8
Value
$19.99
PnL
+$0.19
Record
51%
4707-4542 (9249)
Invested
$18.2
Value
$19.99
PnL
+$1.79
Record
53%
5727-5123 (10850)
Invested
$15.02
Value
$15.16
PnL
+$0.14
Record
17%
66-330 (396)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$7.99
Value
$8
PnL
+$0
Record
38%
3295-5393 (8688)
Invested
$6.99
Value
$7
PnL
+$0
Record
79%
428-113 (541)
Invested
$0.95
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$0.9
Record
41%
3127-4493 (7620)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.