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Yes
FrozenParasiteNo
Istaroth<$100No
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Yes
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100YesYes
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will Michelle Dracoulis win the next Derwent Valley mayoral election?
Resolved No. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
6
Yes 60%
Total Value
$197.4
Combined PnL
-$432.69
Smart Money Signal
Yes
4 of 6 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes4 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares785
Combined PnL-$542.16
No2 traders
Total Value$197.4
Total Shares197
Combined PnL+$109.47
Yes — 67%No — 33%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 43.9¢ | $704.91 | — | -$451.34 | 36% 15138-27265 (42403) |
FrozenParasite | Noavg 38.4¢ | $68.38 | $178 | +$109.62 | 55% 447-366 (813) |
Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $19.76 | $19.4 | -$0.15 | 23% 290-994 (1284) |
LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 52¢ | $10.4 | — | -$10.4 | 18% 521-2334 (2855) |
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 62¢ | $62 | — | -$11 | 56% 15272-11802 (27074) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 50.7¢ | $69.41 | — | -$69.41 | 53% 1116-997 (2113) |
XT
xtxpleasecallmeCTRInvested
$704.91
Value
—
PnL
-$451.34
Record
36%
15138-27265 (42403)
FrozenParasiteInvested
$68.38
Value
$178
PnL
+$109.62
Record
55%
447-366 (813)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$19.76
Value
$19.4
PnL
-$0.15
Record
23%
290-994 (1284)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$10.4
Value
—
PnL
-$10.4
Record
18%
521-2334 (2855)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100Invested
$62
Value
—
PnL
-$11
Record
56%
15272-11802 (27074)
SN
SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100Invested
$69.41
Value
—
PnL
-$69.41
Record
53%
1116-997 (2113)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x1666f95d...e3db98
Slug
will-michelle-dracoulis-win-the-2026-derwent-valley-mayoral-election