Will Michael Carrick be out as Manchester United manager by December 31, 2026?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 92¢ · $257 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
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Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 75%
$256.86
$72.09
89.1¢ → 92¢
+3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Haradwaith | Yesavg 95.2¢ | $147.27 | $105.41 | -$3.81 | 50% 23-23 (46) |
 LornaPredictsCTR | Noavg 6.6¢ | $33.08 | $100.35 | +$67.27 | 12% 18-127 (145) |
 itoney17<$100 | Yesavg 77.5¢ | $32.91 | $39.05 | +$6.14 | — |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Yesavg 73¢ | $9.56 | $12.05 | +$2.49 | 41% 3090-4455 (7545) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.