Will Miami Hurricanes Win the 2026 ACC Championship?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 71¢ · $510 held
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$510.24
-$6.68
72.1¢ → 70.5¢
-2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 71%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 77%
Freshness
Fresh
12h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ND ndb1 | Yesavg 72.2¢ | $303.8 | $301.16 | -$2.64 | 64% 1050-593 (1643) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Yesavg 71.5¢ | $124.59 | $91.1 | -$7.52 | 34% 19138-36780 (55918) |
 extractive-manatee<$100 | Yesavg 69¢ | $69 | $74.5 | +$5.5 | 34% 660-1265 (1925) |
 Haradwaith<$100 | Yesavg 78¢ | $43.33 | $41.38 | -$1.94 | 40% 6508-9755 (16263) |
GA GaditimaCTR<$100 | Noavg 31.1¢ | $2.17 | $2.1 | -$0.07 | 48% 7369-8075 (15444) |
Invested
$303.8
Value
$301.16
PnL
-$2.64
Record
64%
1050-593 (1643)
Invested
$124.59
Value
$91.1
PnL
-$7.52
Record
34%
19138-36780 (55918)
extractive-manatee<$100Invested
$69
Value
$74.5
PnL
+$5.5
Record
34%
660-1265 (1925)
Haradwaith<$100Invested
$43.33
Value
$41.38
PnL
-$1.94
Record
40%
6508-9755 (16263)
Invested
$2.17
Value
$2.1
PnL
-$0.07
Record
48%
7369-8075 (15444)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.