Will MGM Resorts be acquired before 2027?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (20%) · No at 94¢ · $738 held · ends Dec 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 20%
$737.94
$65.68
Research grade
NeutralNo at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-80 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
538h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
8 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 70.2¢ | $695.88 | $697.06 | +$102.35 | 36% 14999-27063 (42062) |
HE HerrieDavisCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.3¢ | $27.05 | $28.69 | +$1.63 | 36% 2031-3630 (5661) |
 NadmiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $2.02 | $4.71 | +$2.35 | 47% 2032-2248 (4280) |
 Trading4FridgeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 36¢ | $21.22 | $4.08 | -$17.14 | 59% 920-651 (1571) |
 Optimus-CTR<$100 | Yesavg 55¢ | $26.73 | $3.4 | -$23.52 | 61% 1196-756 (1952) |
Invested
$695.88
Value
$697.06
PnL
+$102.35
Record
36%
14999-27063 (42062)
Invested
$27.05
Value
$28.69
PnL
+$1.63
Record
36%
2031-3630 (5661)
NadmiCTR<$100Invested
$2.02
Value
$4.71
PnL
+$2.35
Record
47%
2032-2248 (4280)
Trading4FridgeCTR<$100Invested
$21.22
Value
$4.08
PnL
-$17.14
Record
59%
920-651 (1571)
Optimus-CTR<$100Invested
$26.73
Value
$3.4
PnL
-$23.52
Record
61%
1196-756 (1952)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.