Will Mexico’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 5.00% and 5.49%?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 94¢ · $341 held · ends Jan 9, 2027

Yes6¢No94¢Ends Sat, Jan 9, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$341.41

Combined PnL

-$3.02

Smart Money Entry

99.2¢ → 94¢

-5% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$328.57

Total Shares343

Combined PnL-$12.37

Yes2 traders

Total Value$12.83

Total Shares279

Combined PnL+$9.36

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 51%

Freshness

Late

137h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Lucerys	Noavg 99.8¢	$101.3	$96.83	-$4.47	37% 2788-4826 (7614)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$74.79	$71.55	-$3.24	32% 811-1697 (2508)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$59.87	$57.23	-$2.64	30% 2360-5638 (7998)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$41.4	$40.36	-$1.04	57% 56-43 (99)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$29.94	$28.62	-$1.32	11% 28-230 (258)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 94¢	$18.8	$19.08	+$0.28	41% 2924-4137 (7061)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.48	$10.99	+$10.52	17% 10-48 (58)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 92.4¢	$9.26	$9.56	+$0.3	51% 197-186 (383)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$5.58	$5.34	-$0.24	31% 163-361 (524)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.5¢	$3	$1.84	-$1.16	52% 5134-4698 (9832)

Lucerys

Invested

$101.3

Value

$96.83

PnL

-$4.47

Record

37%

2788-4826 (7614)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$74.79

Value

$71.55

PnL

-$3.24

Record

32%

811-1697 (2508)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$59.87

Value

$57.23

PnL

-$2.64

Record

30%

2360-5638 (7998)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$41.4

Value

$40.36

PnL

-$1.04

Record

57%

56-43 (99)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$29.94

Value

$28.62

PnL

-$1.32

Record

11%

28-230 (258)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$18.8

Value

$19.08

PnL

+$0.28

Record

41%

2924-4137 (7061)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.48

Value

$10.99

PnL

+$10.52

Record

17%

10-48 (58)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$9.26

Value

$9.56

PnL

+$0.3

Record

51%

197-186 (383)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$5.58

Value

$5.34

PnL

-$0.24

Record

31%

163-361 (524)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$1.84

PnL

-$1.16

Record

52%

5134-4698 (9832)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 51%

Freshness

Late

137h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.2%

94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.05

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.