Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (70%). 1 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Mexico’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 4.00% and 4.49%?

1 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (13%) · Yes at 31¢ · $636 held · ends Jan 9, 2027

Yes31¢No69¢Ends Sat, Jan 9, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 13%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$636.09

Combined PnL

-$284.52

Research grade

NeutralYes at 31%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 8 top traders (13%)Underdog side (market favors No 70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes31%

No70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$305.35

Total Shares911

Combined PnL+$36.56

No7 traders

Total Value$272.43

Total Shares394

Combined PnL-$321.09

Yes — 13%No — 87%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754CTR	Yesavg 29.5¢	$268.79	$305.35	+$36.56	57% 21-16 (37)
Lucerys	Noavg 70.6¢	$100.72	$70.54	-$1.47	43% 18721-24484 (43205)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271ARB<$100	Noavg 70¢	$43.45	$57.17	+$6.35	23% 8575-28997 (37572)
└ No leg	Noavg 70¢	$28.93	$28.73	-$0.21
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 15.6¢	$14.52	$28.44	+$6.56
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 70.4¢	$53.14	$52.47	-$0.68	45% 16737-20424 (37161)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 72.4¢	$1.1K	$43.08	-$296.24	32% 21943-45829 (67772)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 71.7¢	$52.65	$42.1	-$4.14	50% 66271-66796 (133067)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F	Noavg 82.7¢	$132.19	$33.31	-$9.11	22% 1869-6671 (8540)
WA WarriorH<$100	Noavg 75.7¢	$18.25	$17.13	-$1.13	16% 1418-7655 (9073)
SU SulkingCrypto<$100	Noavg 81.3¢	$52.05	$13.8	-$8.33	16% 419-2245 (2664)

0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754CTR

Yes

Invested

$268.79

Value

$305.35

PnL

+$36.56

Record

57%

21-16 (37)

Lucerys

Invested

$100.72

Value

$70.54

PnL

-$1.47

Record

43%

18721-24484 (43205)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271ARB<$100

Invested

$43.45

Value

$57.17

PnL

+$6.35

Record

23%

8575-28997 (37572)

Both legs:

No$28.9370¢-$0.21

Yes$14.5215.6¢+$6.56

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$53.14

Value

$52.47

PnL

-$0.68

Record

45%

16737-20424 (37161)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$1,071.32

Value

$43.08

PnL

-$296.24

Record

32%

21943-45829 (67772)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$52.65

Value

$42.1

PnL

-$4.14

Record

50%

66271-66796 (133067)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F

Invested

$132.19

Value

$33.31

PnL

-$9.11

Record

22%

1869-6671 (8540)

WarriorH<$100

Invested

$18.25

Value

$17.13

PnL

-$1.13

Record

16%

1418-7655 (9073)

SulkingCrypto<$100

Invested

$52.05

Value

$13.8

PnL

-$8.33

Record

16%

419-2245 (2664)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 31%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 8 top traders (13%)Underdog side (market favors No 70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance32.6%

30.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$206.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

306.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.