Will Mexico’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 3.00% and 3.49%?

11 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold No (65%) · No at 77¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 9, 2027

Yes23¢No77¢Ends Sat, Jan 9, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 65%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$157.79

Smart Money Entry

83.7¢ → 77.5¢

-7% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 17 top traders (65%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes23%

No77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$991.69

Total Shares1,210

Combined PnL-$38.86

Yes6 traders

Total Value$416.29

Total Shares2,251

Combined PnL+$196.65

No — 65%Yes — 35%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Late

3912h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

8 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

65% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (5 on Yes) and the top 1000 (13 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000No 77% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 80¢	$1.0K	$503.99	+$12.12	35% 18059-33813 (51872)
YoungAlphaGoatCTR	Yesavg 9.8¢	$198.06	$398.98	+$200.91	45% 404-496 (900)
WA WarriorH	Noavg 90.4¢	$155.56	$130.97	-$17.24	17% 1213-5822 (7035)
Istaroth	Noavg 87.3¢	$805.06	$121.88	-$75.97	15% 459-2699 (3158)
SP SPLPB<$100	Noavg 89¢	$78.32	$70.62	-$7.7	25% 738-2267 (3005)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 79.5¢	$51.16	$50.8	-$0.36	59% 11786-8040 (19826)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 86.2¢	$43.06	$46.21	+$3.15	53% 8200-7292 (15492)
SU SulkingCrypto<$100	Noavg 89.5¢	$52.17	$22.88	+$51.19	18% 333-1526 (1859)
JO JordanMooney<$100	Noavg 90.5¢	$20.99	$18.3	-$2.7	36% 2007-3593 (5600)
LornaPredicts<$100	Noavg 80.9¢	$16.18	$15.78	-$0.4	20% 2580-10222 (12802)
BI Bigggggggg<$100	Noavg 89.7¢	$8.97	$7.89	-$1.08	43% 3158-4259 (7417)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 12.4¢	$11.57	$6.99	-$4.57	27% 6823-18740 (25563)
CR cry.eth2CTR<$100	Yes	$6.2	$6.2	+$0	40% 9686-14590 (24276)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.1¢	$1.27	$3.07	+$1.8	18% 4276-20026 (24302)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 74.8¢	$2.24	$2.37	+$0.12	49% 8797-9307 (18104)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 14.4¢	$4.75	$0.71	-$0.87	77% 12233-3755 (15988)
LE LetTheGoodTimesRollCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.8¢	$0.98	$0.34	-$0.62	45% 3680-4411 (8091)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$1,017.44

Value

$503.99

PnL

+$12.12

Record

35%

18059-33813 (51872)

YoungAlphaGoatCTR

Yes

Invested

$198.06

Value

$398.98

PnL

+$200.91

Record

45%

404-496 (900)

WarriorH

Invested

$155.56

Value

$130.97

PnL

-$17.24

Record

17%

1213-5822 (7035)

Istaroth

Invested

$805.06

Value

$121.88

PnL

-$75.97

Record

15%

459-2699 (3158)

SPLPB<$100

Invested

$78.32

Value

$70.62

PnL

-$7.7

Record

25%

738-2267 (3005)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$51.16

Value

$50.8

PnL

-$0.36

Record

59%

11786-8040 (19826)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$43.06

Value

$46.21

PnL

+$3.15

Record

53%

8200-7292 (15492)

SulkingCrypto<$100

Invested

$52.17

Value

$22.88

PnL

+$51.19

Record

18%

333-1526 (1859)

JordanMooney<$100

Invested

$20.99

Value

$18.3

PnL

-$2.7

Record

36%

2007-3593 (5600)

LornaPredicts<$100

Invested

$16.18

Value

$15.78

PnL

-$0.4

Record

20%

2580-10222 (12802)

Bigggggggg<$100

Invested

$8.97

Value

$7.89

PnL

-$1.08

Record

43%

3158-4259 (7417)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.57

Value

$6.99

PnL

-$4.57

Record

27%

6823-18740 (25563)

cry.eth2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.2

Value

$6.2

PnL

+$0

Record

40%

9686-14590 (24276)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.27

Value

$3.07

PnL

+$1.8

Record

18%

4276-20026 (24302)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$2.24

Value

$2.37

PnL

+$0.12

Record

49%

8797-9307 (18104)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.75

Value

$0.71

PnL

-$0.87

Record

77%

12233-3755 (15988)

LetTheGoodTimesRollCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.98

Value

$0.34

PnL

-$0.62

Record

45%

3680-4411 (8091)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 77%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 17 top traders (65%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Late

3912h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

8 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

65% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (5 on Yes) and the top 1000 (13 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000No 77% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.3%

77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.11

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.