Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 10 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?

10 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (77%) · Yes at 0.4¢ · $75 held · ends Dec 1

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 77%

Total Value

$74.71

Combined PnL

-$215.89

Smart Money Entry

2.3¢ → 0.4¢

-81% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 13 top traders (77%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$37.1

Total Shares37

Combined PnL-$0.02

Yes10 traders

Total Value$37.61

Total Shares7,571

Combined PnL-$215.87

No — 23%Yes — 77%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Late

667h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$24.1	$24.09	-$0.01	37% 1392-2373 (3765)
BigMackyGCTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$99.47	$18.28	-$81.19	20% 109-426 (535)
WojtekCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.3¢	$16.09	$10.75	-$19.31	20% 412-1641 (2053)
E4 e46m3<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$7.99	$7.99	-$0	72% 12191-4788 (16979)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$5.03	$5.03	-$0	36% 635-1124 (1759)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$23.51	$4.5	-$87.17	35% 16909-31257 (48166)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$6.81	$1.31	-$5.5	25% 180-537 (717)
Hannah-MontanaCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$3.03	$1.19	-$1.84	68% 213-102 (315)
SP SPLPBCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$2.71	$0.52	-$2.19	24% 666-2082 (2748)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR	Yesavg 2.9¢	$204.51	$0.48	-$5.57	30% 2186-5024 (7210)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$1.71	$0.33	-$1.38	31% 1406-3191 (4597)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$11.03	$0.2	-$0.94	23% 176-599 (775)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$40.21	$0.04	-$10.78	35% 555-1035 (1590)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$24.1

Value

$24.09

PnL

-$0.01

Record

37%

1392-2373 (3765)

BigMackyGCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$99.47

Value

$18.28

PnL

-$81.19

Record

20%

109-426 (535)

WojtekCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.09

Value

$10.75

PnL

-$19.31

Record

20%

412-1641 (2053)

e46m3<$100

Invested

$7.99

Value

$7.99

PnL

-$0

Record

72%

12191-4788 (16979)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$5.03

Value

$5.03

PnL

-$0

Record

36%

635-1124 (1759)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.51

Value

$4.5

PnL

-$87.17

Record

35%

16909-31257 (48166)

lpgbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.81

Value

$1.31

PnL

-$5.5

Record

25%

180-537 (717)

Hannah-MontanaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.03

Value

$1.19

PnL

-$1.84

Record

68%

213-102 (315)

SPLPBCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.71

Value

$0.52

PnL

-$2.19

Record

24%

666-2082 (2748)

SpringlyFawlCTR

Yes

Invested

$204.51

Value

$0.48

PnL

-$5.57

Record

30%

2186-5024 (7210)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.71

Value

$0.33

PnL

-$1.38

Record

31%

1406-3191 (4597)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.03

Value

$0.2

PnL

-$0.94

Record

23%

176-599 (775)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$40.21

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$10.78

Record

35%

555-1035 (1590)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 13 top traders (77%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Late

667h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.5%

0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6535.00

Max Loss

-$100.00

6635.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.