Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Meta be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30, 2026?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 0.2¢ · $27 held · ends Dec 1
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 75%
$27.09
$26.7
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 SteveTheFish<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $25 | $24.95 | +$0.08 | 72% 58-23 (81) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.9¢ | $6.93 | $1.49 | +$29.07 | 35% 17512-32753 (50265) |
VE VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4¢ | $2 | $0.1 | -$1.9 | 17% 235-1139 (1374) |
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100 | Yesavg 4¢ | $0.58 | $0.03 | -$0.55 | 26% 247-698 (945) |
SteveTheFish<$100Invested
$25
Value
$24.95
PnL
+$0.08
Record
72%
58-23 (81)
Invested
$6.93
Value
$1.49
PnL
+$29.07
Record
35%
17512-32753 (50265)
Invested
$2
Value
$0.1
PnL
-$1.9
Record
17%
235-1139 (1374)
Invested
$0.58
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$0.55
Record
26%
247-698 (945)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.