Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (57%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
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5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 43¢ · $276 held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$275.88
-$1.2
Research grade
NeutralNo at 43%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 40%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 40% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100 | Noavg 43.2¢ | $215.99 | $232.08 | +$16.09 | 41% 3141-4503 (7644) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 43.2¢ | $150.19 | $152.98 | +$2.79 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 47¢ | $65.8 | $79.1 | +$13.3 | |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 43¢ | $8.6 | $8.8 | +$0.2 | 51% 4719-4553 (9272) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Noavg 45¢ | $9 | $8.8 | -$0.2 | 31% 2807-6229 (9036) |
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100 | Noavg 47¢ | $9.4 | $8.8 | -$0.6 | 29% 882-2138 (3020) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Noavg 46¢ | $9.2 | $8.8 | -$0.4 | 10% 3-28 (31) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Noavg 44¢ | $8.8 | $8.6 | -$0.2 | 53% 5734-5129 (10863) |
Invested
$215.99
Value
$232.08
PnL
+$16.09
Record
41%
3141-4503 (7644)
Both legs:
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$8.6
Value
$8.8
PnL
+$0.2
Record
51%
4719-4553 (9272)
Invested
$9
Value
$8.8
PnL
-$0.2
Record
31%
2807-6229 (9036)
Invested
$9.4
Value
$8.8
PnL
-$0.6
Record
29%
882-2138 (3020)
Invested
$9.2
Value
$8.8
PnL
-$0.4
Record
10%
3-28 (31)
Invested
$8.8
Value
$8.6
PnL
-$0.2
Record
53%
5734-5129 (10863)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
43.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.