Will Melissa Hernandez win the CA-14 House seat?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 99¢ · $946 held · ended Nov 4

Yes1¢No99¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$945.88

Combined PnL

-$3.96

Smart Money Entry

84.7¢ → 98.9¢

+17% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$938

Total Shares941

Combined PnL+$82.33

Yes3 traders

Total Value$7.87

Total Shares656

Combined PnL-$86.29

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Mature

39h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 88¢	$824.6	$412.98	+$8.57	35% 18159-34016 (52175)
ME merod	Noavg 82.9¢	$227.96	$271.7	+$43.74	43% 3133-4188 (7321)
SM smallreceipt	Noavg 79.8¢	$139.61	$172.9	+$33.29	49% 8853-9359 (18212)
TH TheWindKnowsmyName<$100	Noavg 94.3¢	$77.63	$40.66	-$12.2	51% 258-247 (505)
KO korda77<$100	Noavg 76.4¢	$19.86	$25.69	+$5.82	44% 6482-8172 (14654)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Noavg 77¢	$10.97	$14.08	+$3.11	77% 12312-3779 (16091)
LinaBellCTR<$100	Yesavg 17.8¢	$58.66	$4.53	-$54.13	63% 1213-708 (1921)
SI singularitymanCTR<$100	Yesavg 15.9¢	$27.24	$2.74	-$24.5	41% 144-204 (348)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 19.6¢	$8.26	$0.6	-$7.66	53% 8228-7325 (15553)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$824.6

Value

$412.98

PnL

+$8.57

Record

35%

18159-34016 (52175)

merod

Invested

$227.96

Value

$271.7

PnL

+$43.74

Record

43%

3133-4188 (7321)

smallreceipt

Invested

$139.61

Value

$172.9

PnL

+$33.29

Record

49%

8853-9359 (18212)

TheWindKnowsmyName<$100

Invested

$77.63

Value

$40.66

PnL

-$12.2

Record

51%

258-247 (505)

korda77<$100

Invested

$19.86

Value

$25.69

PnL

+$5.82

Record

44%

6482-8172 (14654)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Invested

$10.97

Value

$14.08

PnL

+$3.11

Record

77%

12312-3779 (16091)

LinaBellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$58.66

Value

$4.53

PnL

-$54.13

Record

63%

1213-708 (1921)

singularitymanCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.24

Value

$2.74

PnL

-$24.5

Record

41%

144-204 (348)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.26

Value

$0.6

PnL

-$7.66

Record

53%

8228-7325 (15553)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Mature

39h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

98.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.