Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Meituan have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $1 held · ends Dec 1
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 100%
$0.61
-$44.3
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 77%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.3¢ | $24.14 | $0.36 | -$23.77 | 35% 16906-31245 (48151) |
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100 | Yesavg 4¢ | $8.57 | $0.11 | -$9.62 | 63% 12918-7608 (20526) |
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100 | Yesavg 4¢ | $5.32 | $0.07 | -$5.26 | 37% 633-1096 (1729) |
LP lpgbCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4¢ | $5.32 | $0.07 | -$5.25 | 25% 180-534 (714) |
AN anothercoinCTR<$100 | Yes | $0.01 | $0.01 | -$0.4 | 59% 218-153 (371) |
Invested
$24.14
Value
$0.36
PnL
-$23.77
Record
35%
16906-31245 (48151)
Invested
$8.57
Value
$0.11
PnL
-$9.62
Record
63%
12918-7608 (20526)
Invested
$5.32
Value
$0.07
PnL
-$5.26
Record
37%
633-1096 (1729)
Invested
$5.32
Value
$0.07
PnL
-$5.25
Record
25%
180-534 (714)
Invested
$0.01
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0.4
Record
59%
218-153 (371)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.