Will McKenna Grace be the live-action Gwen Stacy?
1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 90¢ · $136 held · ends Dec 31, 2027
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Neutral
No
3
No 33%
$135.82
$17.47
Research grade
NeutralNo at 90%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 3 top traders (33%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 76.6¢ | $112.11 | $130.99 | +$18.88 | 41% 2924-4137 (7061) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 14¢ | $3.64 | $2.73 | -$0.91 | — 1-9 (10) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100 | Yesavg 13¢ | $2.6 | $2.1 | -$0.5 | — 1-10 (11) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.