Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (88%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will MC win the most seats in the 2027 Chihuahua Congress election?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 12¢ · $311 held · ends Jun 7, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 40%
$311.12
$22.45
18.1¢ → 12¢
-34% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 12%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 88%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
483h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 18.2¢ | $194.56 | $141.79 | -$55.44 | 36% 16059-28074 (44133) |
 archaic | Noavg 80.6¢ | $791.18 | $107.91 | +$77.69 | 85% 1906-339 (2245) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $57.85 | $57.85 | +$0 | 18% 365-1635 (2000) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $1.95 | $1.99 | +$0.04 | 76% 11352-3524 (14876) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12.2¢ | $1.43 | $1.58 | +$0.15 | 18% 3832-17370 (21202) |
Invested
$194.56
Value
$141.79
PnL
-$55.44
Record
36%
16059-28074 (44133)
archaicInvested
$791.18
Value
$107.91
PnL
+$77.69
Record
85%
1906-339 (2245)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$57.85
Value
$57.85
PnL
+$0
Record
18%
365-1635 (2000)
Invested
$1.95
Value
$1.99
PnL
+$0.04
Record
76%
11352-3524 (14876)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$1.43
Value
$1.58
PnL
+$0.15
Record
18%
3832-17370 (21202)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
12.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.