Will Mauricio Macri win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?

11 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 100¢ · $5K held · ends Oct 25, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Oct 25, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 73%

Total Value

$5.1K

Combined PnL

$3.11

Smart Money Entry

99¢ → 99.9¢

+1% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 15 top traders (73%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$5.1K

Total Shares5,120

Combined PnL+$68.07

Yes4 traders

Total Value$1.97

Total Shares595

Combined PnL-$64.96

No — 73%Yes — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Late

248h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

73% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI Bigggggggg	Noavg 99.6¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$0.63	43% 3158-4259 (7417)
SM smallreceipt	Noavg 99.6¢	$763.17	$762.94	-$0.23	49% 8797-9307 (18104)
DO donthackme	Noavg 97.2¢	$565.69	$579.78	+$14.09	73% 12849-4764 (17613)
IN influenz.eth	Noavg 97.8¢	$294.36	$296.5	+$39.3	42% 10332-14359 (24691)
ME merod	Noavg 99.7¢	$154.59	$154.38	-$0.21	43% 3101-4154 (7255)
GO godblessme2026	Noavg 99.6¢	$137.5	$137.45	-$0.04	42% 6979-9779 (16758)
GH ghorrock	Noavg 99.6¢	$421.07	$60.71	+$0.23	58% 19424-14279 (33703)
AK akroll<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$59.94	$59.76	-$0.18	32% 440-926 (1366)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 75¢	$43.45	$51.07	+$9.62	35% 18059-33813 (51872)
GI GingerMcKenna<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$39.89	$39.85	-$0.04	38% 3057-4942 (7999)
VI VictorLudorum<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$4.45	$4.34	+$4.9	52% 6246-5776 (12022)
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100	Yes	$0.93	$0.93	-$3.28	6% 14-231 (245)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100	Yes	$0.8	$0.8	-$2.84	49% 123-126 (249)
JO JordanMooneyCTR	Yesavg 0.8¢	$436.28	$0.24	-$58.82	36% 2007-3593 (5600)
0X 0xc023bee917480fed315d186a7b223f33c09a0fe8-1793567845085CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$0.03	$0	-$0.02	55% 18-15 (33)

Bigggggggg

Invested

$2,953.45

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$0.63

Record

43%

3158-4259 (7417)

smallreceipt

Invested

$763.17

Value

$762.94

PnL

-$0.23

Record

49%

8797-9307 (18104)

donthackme

Invested

$565.69

Value

$579.78

PnL

+$14.09

Record

73%

12849-4764 (17613)

influenz.eth

Invested

$294.36

Value

$296.5

PnL

+$39.3

Record

42%

10332-14359 (24691)

merod

Invested

$154.59

Value

$154.38

PnL

-$0.21

Record

43%

3101-4154 (7255)

godblessme2026

Invested

$137.5

Value

$137.45

PnL

-$0.04

Record

42%

6979-9779 (16758)

ghorrock

Invested

$421.07

Value

$60.71

PnL

+$0.23

Record

58%

19424-14279 (33703)

akroll<$100

Invested

$59.94

Value

$59.76

PnL

-$0.18

Record

32%

440-926 (1366)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$43.45

Value

$51.07

PnL

+$9.62

Record

35%

18059-33813 (51872)

GingerMcKenna<$100

Invested

$39.89

Value

$39.85

PnL

-$0.04

Record

38%

3057-4942 (7999)

VictorLudorum<$100

Invested

$4.45

Value

$4.34

PnL

+$4.9

Record

52%

6246-5776 (12022)

NyetRiskCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.93

Value

$0.93

PnL

-$3.28

Record

14-231 (245)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.8

Value

$0.8

PnL

-$2.84

Record

49%

123-126 (249)

JordanMooneyCTR

Yes

Invested

$436.28

Value

$0.24

PnL

-$58.82

Record

36%

2007-3593 (5600)

0xc023bee917480fed315d186a7b223f33c09a0fe8-1793567845085CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

PnL

-$0.02

Record

55%

18-15 (33)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 15 top traders (73%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Late

248h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

73% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.